Best value bets for UFC 320: Magomed Ankalaev vs. Alex Pereira

In what felt like a long break from title fights, we’re back in Las Vegas for UFC 320 with two belts on the line. Both incumbent champions are clear betting favorites, but after accounting for performance stats and market prices, I won’t be recommending betting their matchups with equal confidence levels. With such a deep card, there could be better value elsewhere.

Magomed Ankalaev (-265) vs. Alex Pereira (+225)

It’s a rematch where not much has changed. In a near pick 'em fight in their first title matchup in March, I had a stronger lean on Ankalaev. Pereira was, and is, the more gifted striker, while Ankalaev was, and is, the bigger threat on the ground. But then Ankalaev went 0-for-12 on takedown attempts and ended up winning primarily by volume pressure and some clinch control. That was satisfying for a pick 'em fight, but not so much for a favorite north of 2-to-1.

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Now the market has caught up, making this a pricing game. I still have the lean toward Ankalaev, as not much has changed for either man’s performance metrics. But the price movement and the unknown of any adjustments by Perreira make this nearly unplayable. Mathematically, I still have a tiny play on Ankalaev even at what feels like too steep a price. So I’ll happily look elsewhere for greater value.

The play: Ankalaev to win, very low unit play

Merab Dvalishvili (-375) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+295)

Merab is well into a dominant championship reign, and this will be his fourth straight title fight that I’m backing him. Having solved a pure striker in Sean O’Malley (twice) and also a pure grappler in Usman Nurmagomedov, he now faces someone more well-rounded in Sandhagen.

But Sandhagen is also less of a striking or grappling threat than either of Merab’s title opponents’ best threats. The odds agree. On paper, Sandhagen is the more accurate striker, accustomed to using high volume to win points. Unfortunately, that could backfire against a durable champ who welcomes a high pace and can take advantage of forward momentum by taking the fight to the ground.

Merab has become a master of this high-paced style that changes level throughout the fight, benefiting from a seemingly endless gas tank. And Sandhagen’s average takedown defense won’t hold up for long. I’ll have to lay a lot of chalk for Merab, but he’s still my guy.

The play: Merab to win, stronger unit play or use for parlays

Joe Pyfer (-250) vs. Abus Magomedov (+200)

Normally in a striker versus grappler matchup, I’m backing the ground game. But with Pyfer showing enough advantages on the feet, with unconvincing stats for his opponent’s wrestling, I’m siding with the striker. Pyfer hits hard, and Magomedov has been dropped by poor defense twice and is now on the wrong side of 35.

Abus does have a wrestling advantage, but it’s not guaranteed he’ll get to use it. His ground metrics are about average, and he hasn’t faced anyone who tried to wrestle him on purpose. If Pyfer can force extended sequences on his feet by stuffing the first few takedowns, he’s capable of owning the rounds and potentially scoring a striking finish.

The play: Joe Pyfer to win

Jiří Procházka (-180) vs. Khalil Rountree (+150)

Though I’m mostly chalk this week, another matchup on the main card intrigues me for more than just potential action. Rountree has massive power and is facing a bigger name who lacks defense. That suggests value on the dog. Procházka's never landed more than one takedown per fight, meaning these guys will have ample time to trade leather. And though Procházka is a highly accurate striker, he doesn’t have nearly the same power that Rountree offers and relies too much on defensive movement than blocking.

Rountree lost to a rangier champ in Pereira, but proved to be durable and maybe learned something from that fight. He might have to eat a few to land a few while closing the distance, but he should get his chance at some point. With more knockdowns than any fighter on the card, there’s some value in Rountree putting more damage on Procházka.

The play: Khalil Rountree to win