Clemson Basketball Preview: North Carolina Tarheels

With just two games remaining in the regular season, Clemson is eager to claim another quality victory before its postseason run begins.

Clemson Tigers 21-8 (11-5) atNorth Carolina Tar Heels 23-6 (11-5)
When: Tuesday, Mar 3, 7 PM
Where: Dean E. Smith Center – Chapel Hill, NC
TV: ESPN

A Formidable Battleground

With the crucial victory over Louisville on Saturday, Clemson snapped a 4-game losing streak that was threatening to turn into a season-defining tailspin. Jestin Porter stepped up big with 16 points in the second half to help secure the win, and now the Tigers have some positive momentum to take into Chapel Hill to face their next daunting opponent.

Most Clemson fans are well aware of the disastrous history Clemson Hoops has when playing in the Tar Heels’ home stadium. Prior to the 2020 matchup, Clemson basketball held an unbelievable 0-59 record in UNC territory.

Since that historic victory, the Tigers have managed to win at North Carolina a second time in 2024, but to say that history isn’t on Clemson’s side here would be an understatement.

What’s At Stake

Who cares about history, though? This year’s showdown with the Tar Heels offers Clemson an opportunity to put an exclamation mark on what has been a largely successful season and seal their double-bye for the ACC tournament (with a little help from around the conference).

If Clemson can pick up their third-ever victory at UNC, the Tigers would be in a prime position to secure a double-bye, assuming ACC Top Dog Duke takes care of business against its fellow North Carolina opponents in the Tar Heels and the Wolfpack. With a loss, Clemson’s resume takes another hit and pushes them further down the food chain for both the ACC tournament and the NCAA’s Big Dance.

UNC will be trying to finish the regular season a perfect 18-0 at home. Spoiling that home record is a tall order for the Tigers, especially given the quality of North Carolina’s roster this season, but there is a way through for Brownell’s squad.

The Matchup

North Carolina has been a machine this year, boasting a 23-6 overall record. Interestingly, the Tar Heels’ conference record (11-5) is the same as Clemson’s, setting the stage for a critical conference showdown. Despite a much stronger out-of-conference record that includes wins against Florida and Kansas, UNC has dropped five games to arguably weaker ACC teams, including Stanford and California (who Clemson swept in its West Coast visit).

Make no mistake, this is going to be a tough game for Clemson with plenty on the line Tuesday night. UNC is a well-rounded group, ranking 31st in offense and 40th in defense by KenPom. Clemson is a defensively-oriented team (18th via KenPom) that thrives off bench play with 30.5 bench points per game (best in the ACC).

The Tar Heels will be without their freshman star, Caleb Wilson (19.8 PPG), but they have more than enough firepower without him. 7-foot junior Henri Veesaar (16.7 PPG) is entering this game after posting a 26-point effort against Virginia Tech, tying his season high. Alongside him is the recent ACC Player of the Week, Seth Trimble (14.5 PPG).

Clemson’s best chance of winning this game is sticking to what Brownell has them doing best. Clemson is excellent at keeping teams from spreading the ball effectively; they limit assists and create turnovers to disrupt opposing offenses, but the Tigers must also shoot the ball smartly to keep up with UNC.

If Clemson’s “bigs” can stay out of foul trouble and keep the Tar Heels off balance, Brownell’s group has a realistic chance Tuesday. North Carolina can quickly run away with this if Clemson doesn’t play disciplined, so the bench needs to continue stepping up as they have for much of the season. Jestin Porter needs to replicate the kind of performance he had against Louisville last week, and the Tigers cannot afford silly mistakes.

Do you think Clemson will pull off the upset? Let us know in the comments, and be sure to stick around for the upcoming post-season games.