ESPN FPI offers surprising game-by-game predictions for Michigan football’s 2025 season

Aug 24, 2025 - 22:00

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ESPN FPI offers surprising game-by-game predictions for Michigan football’s 2025 season

It's officially game week, and in just six days, Michigan football will kick off the 2025 season, starting with a home game against New Mexico at The Big House.

But with Week 0 in the books, we're starting to learn what the analytics say (at least in the preseason) about which teams are expected to be favorites and which are anticipated as underdogs. With that in mind, the ESPN FPI predictor is now live for each and every Michigan football game, sharing an early look at what might be each week.

Here is what ESPN FPI says about each of the Wolverines' games, along with the percentage indicating the maize and blue's chances to win each game.

Week 1 - New Mexico

Sherrone Moore before the Fresno State game

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win

Chances of winning: 97.5%

Week 2 - at Oklahoma

Oklahoma Sooners defensive back Kendel Dolby (15) celebrates after an OU fumble recovery during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the Tennessee Volunteers at Gaylord Family - Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 21, 2024.

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win

Chances of winning: 51.8%

Week 3 - Central Michigan

Bryce Underwood

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win

Chances of winning: 97.0%

Week 4 - at Nebraska

Photo: Isaiah Hole

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win

Chances of winning: 59.0%

Week 6 - Wisconsin

Photo: Isaiah Hole

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win

Chances of winning: 76.9%

Week 7 - at USC

Miller Moss in his own endzone vs Michigan

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan loss

Chances of winning: 34.7%

Week 8 - Washington

Jack Tuttle prepares to throw a TD vs Washington

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win

Chances of winning: 78.2%

Week 9 - at Michigan State

MSU Spartans head coach Jonathan Smith

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win

Chances of winning: 79.7%

Week 10 - Purdue

Michigan touches the banner before Arkansas State

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win

Chances of winning: 94.6%

Week 12 - at Northwestern

Photo: Isaiah Hole

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win

Chances of winning: 82.9%

Week 13 - at Maryland

Photo: Isaiah Hole

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan win

Chances of winning: 79.0%

Week 14 - Ohio State

Michigan football S Rod Moore

ESPN FPI predicts: Michigan loss

Chances of winning: 36.9%

Predicted finish

ESPN FPI has the Wolverines losing two games -- at USC and in the regular season finale against Ohio State (such has been the case in each of the past four years). Still, ESPN FPI does predict wins at Oklahoma and at Nebraska (a game where Sherrone Moore will be suspended).

With that in mind, the final record, according to the preseason prediction here, is 10-2.

This article originally appeared on Wolverines Wire: ESPN FPI predicts Michigan football’s 2025 game-by-game outcomes