ESPN predicts the winner of Clemson vs. Florida State

Feb 21, 2026 - 00:00

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ESPN predicts the winner of Clemson vs. Florida State

Clemson basketball looks to stop a three-game losing skid when the Tigers host ACC rival Florida State Saturday at Littlejohn Coliseum.

The Tigers (20-7 overall, 10-4 conference), ranked No. 24 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, may have lost by single digits on Wednesday night at Wake Forest, 85-77, but the game practically felt over when the Demon Deacons opened with a 22-8 run in the first eight-plus minutes and led 45-32 at halftime.

Clemson couldn't catch up, though the Tigers did briefly trim the deficit to five at one point early in the second half. They never got any closer thanks to Wake Forest's Juke Harris, who finished with a game-high 20 points. Harris, the ACC's third-leading scorer this season behind Duke's Cameron Boozer and Stanford's Ebuka Okorie, was one of five players to finish in double figures for the Deacs.

Jake Wahlin led Clemson with 17 points and fellow big man Carter Welling added 13, as did guard Ace Buckner. Wake Forest made 55 percent of its shots from the field, including 10 3-pointers.

Clemson's three-game losing streak is its longest since January 2024 when the Tigers opened ACC play 1-3 after consecutive losses to Miami, North Carolina and Virginia Tech after a 9-0 start.

Florida State (13-13, 6-7), meanwhile, is back to .500 after rallying for an 80-72 win over Boston College on Tuesday. The Seminoles have won five of their last seven games after rallying from a 10-point deficit at halftime and outscoring Boston College 48-30 in the second half.

Robert McCray V led FSU with 27 points in the win over the Eagles, and Alex Steen added 13 points and eight rebounds. McCray leads the Seminoles in scoring with 15.2 points per game this season. Former Clemson star Chauncey Wiggins, who transferred to FSU after last season, is second with 12.6 PPG.

Clemson has won six straight against Florida State on the hardwood. Will the Tigers make it seven in a row to get back in the win column Saturday?

Will Clemson basketball beat Florida State? ESPN's prediction

Ahead of Clemson-Florida State, ESPN's matchup predictor, which offers a prediction model based on its college basketball power index (BPI) and other variables, weighed in with its odds. ESPN's metrics give the Tigers an 87.8% chance to win and the Seminoles a 12.2% chance.

Where Clemson basketball lands in ESPN's BPI metrics after three straight losses

Clemson is 29th nationally in ESPN's latest BPI ratings, down two spots from last week. The Tigers have a 15.1 overall rating. The metrics give the Tigers a 5.9 rating on offense that ranks 54st nationally, and a 9.2 rating on defense that's 17th nationally.

Florida State is No. 85 in ESPN's BPI. The Seminoles have an offensive rating of 3.0 and a defensive rating of 3.7.

ACC basketball teams ranked by ESPN BPI as March Madness approaches

Nov 29, 2020; Coral Gables, Florida, USA; A general view of the ACC conference logo on the court prior to the game between the Miami Hurricanes and the North Florida Ospreys at Watsco Center. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

18. Boston College Eagles (0.7 BPI0
17. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (1.5 BPI)
16. Pittsburgh Panthers (5.6 BPI)
15. Florida State Seminoles (6.7 BPI)
14. Stanford Cardinals (7.0 BPI)
T-12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (7.7 BPI)
T-12. California Golden Bears (7.7 BPI)
11. Virginia Tech Hokies (8.1 BPI)
10. Syracuse Orange (8.3 BPI)
9. Wake Forest Demon Deacons (9.8 BPI)
8. Miami Hurricanes (12.8 BPI)
7. SMU Mustangs (13.6 BPI)
6. North Carolina Tar Heels (14.3 BPI)
5. Clemson Tigers (15.1 BPI)
4. NC State Wolfpack (15.6 BPI
3. Virginia Cavaliers (16.4 BPI)
2. Louisville Cardinals (20.2 BPI)
1. Duke Blue Devils (25.1)

What is ESPN Basketball Power Index?

ESPN explains its basketball power index and score projections:

The College Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of performance going forward. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Strength of Record (SOR) is a measure of team accomplishment based on how difficult a team's W-L record is to achieve. Game predictions account for opponent strength, pace of play, site, travel distance, day's rest and altitude, and are used to simulate the season 10,000 times to produce season projections. Numbers update daily."

Where Clemson basketball landed in the latest ESPN Bilas Index https://t.co/QNPwkAjNjQ pic.twitter.com/YIDrQxtk70— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) February 20, 2026

Start time, TV channel for Clemson vs Florida State basketball

Tipoff for Clemson-Florida State is noon ET Saturday at Littlejohn Coliseum. The game will be televised nationally on The CW.

Additionally, the game can be heard on the Clemson Athletic Network featuring Tigers play-by-play voice Don Munson and analyst Tim Bourret. The Clemson radio call of the game can also be heard on SiriusXM channel 85.

Find your local Clemson radio affiliate below.

CITY, STATE	FREQUENCY
Clemson	105.5 FM
Camden	102.7
Charleston	98.5
Columbia	93.1
Florence	97.1
Greenville	92.5
Greenwood	1450 AM
Hampton	92.1
Hilton Head	96.1
Hilton Head	1130
Myrtle Beach	100.7
Myrtle Beach	105.9
Newberry	1240
Orangeburg	105.3
Rock Hill	100.1
Rock Hill	1340
Spartanburg	97.5
Sumter	94.7
Union	103.5
Union	1460
Charlotte, N.C.	730
Lincolnton, N.C.	1050

Where Clemson basketball stands in NET rankings after another loss https://t.co/8pa8oqnlbe pic.twitter.com/VfKSxOiLAO— Clemson Wire (@Clemson_Wire) February 19, 2026