How NHL Draft Lottery Impacted the Bruins: What Toronto’s Pick Means for Boston
admin_news
How NHL Draft Lottery Impacted the Bruins: What Toronto’s Pick Means for Boston originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
The 2026 NHL Draft Lottery delivered the result Bruins fans were hoping to avoid. By winning the lottery and securing the No. 1 overall pick, the Toronto Maple Leafs successfully triggered the top-five protection clause on the pick owed to Boston.
The ping-pong balls falling in Toronto's favor means the Maple Leafs will keep their selection to draft Penn State superstar Gavin McKenna. For the Bruins, the outcome means their wait for a first-round return from the March 2025 trade for Brendan Carlo continues.
Because the pick landed inside the top five, the terms of the deal dictate that the asset now shifts to the future. Toronto will retain its 2026 selection, and Boston is now slated to receive a first-round pick in either 2027 or 2028 instead.
With the ping-pong balls finally at rest, here is the complete 2026 NHL Draft order and a closer look at how tonight's results affected the Bruins
How the NHL Draft Lottery odds work
The lottery determined the order for the first 16 picks of the first round, including teams that missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs, as well as teams that acquired those first-round draft slots through trades.
The Canucks had the best chance to win the first lottery draw at 18.5 percent, but their actual odds of receiving the No. 1 pick were listed at 25.5 percent because of the NHL’s 10-spot move-up rule. If certain lower-seeded teams win the draw but cannot jump all the way to No. 1, Vancouver can still end up with the top pick.
The top of the lottery order looked like this:
- Vancouver Canucks: 18.5 percent chance to win first draw; 25.5 percent chance to receive No. 1
- Chicago Blackhawks: 13.5 percent
- New York Rangers: 11.5 percent
- Calgary Flames: 9.5 percent
- Toronto Maple Leafs’ pick: 8.5 percent, conditional to Boston
| Teams | Odds | Combinations (out of 1,000) |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Canucks | 18.5% | 185 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 13.5% | 135 |
| New York Rangers | 11.5% | 115 |
| Calgary Flames | 9.5% | 95 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (cond. to BOS)* | 8.5% | 85 |
| Seattle Kraken | 7.5% | 75 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 6.5% | 65 |
| Florida Panthers | 6.0% | 60 |
| San Jose Sharks | 5.0% | 50 |
| Nashville Predators | 3.5% | 35 |
| St. Louis Blues | 3.0% | 30 |
| New Jersey Devils | 2.5% | 25 |
| New York Islanders | 2.0% | 20 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 1.5% | 15 |
| St. Louis Blues (from DET) | 0.5% | 5 |
| Washington Capitals | 0.5% | 5 |
* If Toronto's first-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft is a top-five pick following the Lottery, Toronto will instead transfer its 2027 or 2028 first-round pick to Boston.
Though, the night's results turned out different than expected. The Maple Leafs moved all the way up to the No. 1 pick, meaning that the Bruins will have to wait until 2027 or 2028 for the extra first rounder. The San Jose Sharks also moved up to the No. 2 pick, meaning the three teams with the highest odds — the Canucks, Blackhawks and Rangers — all moved down a spot.
Here is the complete draft order for the top 16 after Tuesday night:
| Pick | Team |
| 1 | Toronto Maple Leafs |
| 2 | San Jose Sharks |
| 3 | Vancouver Canucks |
| 4 | Chicago Blackhawks |
| 5 | New York Rangers |
| 6 | Calgary Flames |
| 7 | Seattle Kraken |
| 8 | Winnipeg Jets |
| 9 | Florida Panthers |
| 10 | Nashville Predators |
| 11 | St. Louis Blues |
| 12 | New Jersey Devils |
| 13 | New York Islanders |
| 14 | Columbus Blue Jackets |
| 15 | St. Louis Blues (from Detroit Red Wings) |
| 16 | Washington Capitals |
What Bruins fans should root for
For Boston, the best-case scenario was not Toronto landing a top pick. Though, since Toronto landed in the top-five, they get to protect the pick.
This means the Bruins will have to wait until 2027 or 2028 for Toronto’s first-rounder, extending the timeline for this trade to finally pay dividends for the front office in Boston.
While securing a high pick in a deep 2026 class would have been a major win, the focus now shifts toward cheering for a Toronto collapse next season. Since the 2026 pick is officially staying in Ontario, the Bruins' best-case scenario is that the Maple Leafs struggle significantly over the next year or two, potentially turning that deferred asset into an unprotected lottery pick in 2027 or 2028.
