Kentucky Derby pick to win: Renegade is the favorite, but a 15-1 longshot is the choice
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LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Even in a year when it seems like there are a few clear standouts in the crop of 3-year old Thoroughbreds, handicapping the Kentucky Derby can seem like a jigsaw puzzle.
Trying to figure out this year’s Derby is far more complicated than that.
Though a semi-consensus has formed around five horses being in the top tier of contenders — Renegade (4-1 odds), Commandment (6-1), The Puma (10-1), Chief Wallabee (8-1) and Further Ado (6-1) are likely to get the most support from bettors — all come with various question marks.
The questions to be answered
Can Renegade, who won the Arkansas Derby impressively, get a good enough trip coming out of the No. 1 post position, which hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner in 40 years?
Though Commandment narrowly won the two big prep races in Florida this spring, why did two of the nation’s most prominent jockeys (Flavien Prat and Irad Ortiz) jump off him after wins in favor of other mounts?
After getting caught at the wire by Commandment in the 1 ⅛-mile Florida Derby, does The Puma really want 1 ¼ miles?
How does the addition of blinkers change the picture for Chief Wallabee, who has run just three times for two-time Derby winning trainer Bill Mott?
Does Further Ado’s 11-length win in the Blue Grass Stakes make him the real deal, or is he simply a much better horse on the Keeneland surface, where he’s run his two fastest races, than he is at other tracks?
With so much guesswork around the favorites, this Kentucky Derby should offer some incredible betting opportunities in the next tier of contenders. Though it’s a bit of a grab bag — you could make a compelling case for as many as 14 out of the 20 horses in the field — there is one horse with a combination of value and upside that stands out from the crowd.
Handicapping the race
For prominent trainer Chad Brown, Emerging Market (15-1) has been “a source of frustration” because despite his immense talent and a series of strong workouts stretching all the way back to last year, various issues prevented him from entering a race until Feb. 7.
But after breaking his maiden impressively, Brown — a patient trainer who doesn’t typically push horses that aren’t ready — threw him right into the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby on March 21.
Though it’s unclear how strong of a field he faced that day, Emerging Market wearing down the much more experienced Pavlovian (30-1) in the stretch to win by a head was the kind of effort not many horses are capable of in their second career start.
“We haven’t been able to run him as many times as we wanted to, but clearly by the fall of last year, he was one of our top three prospects for the Derby as an unraced horse,” Brown said. “So the fact he’s gotten here is not a surprise.”
From all indications, Emerging Market has done nothing but mature and move forward since that effort in New Orleans. Brown, not one for hyperbole, continues to gush about the horse’s progress. His morning gallops over the Churchill Downs racetrack have been flawless. With a pedigree that includes plenty of stamina, including Belmont Stakes winner Empire Maker on his mother’s side, distance shouldn’t be a problem.
Of course, there’s one big question mark for him, as well: You have to go back to Leonatus in 1883 to find a Derby winner who came into the race with just two starts. That doesn’t mean it can’t be done — 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify made his racing debut on Feb. 15 of that year and had just three races under his belt — but it takes a special horse.
We’ll find out Saturday if Emerging Market fits in that category. At 15-1 on the morning line, it might be worth a shot.
Here are my top picks for the Derby:
1. Emerging Market (15-1)
2. So Happy (15-1): Though sired by sprinter Runhappy, he handled the 1 ⅛-mile Santa Anita Derby impressively and posted a Beyer Speed Figure of 100 — among the best in the field. Another horse that has looked fantastic this week on the track, So Happy gets one of the all-time great jockeys in 60-year old Mike Smith, who is looking for his third Derby win. Trainer Mark Glatt has never had a Derby starter before but is the sentimental favorite as his wife, Dena, passed away at age 57 in February.
3. Chief Wallabee (8-1): When he broke his maiden on Jan. 10 at Gulfstream Park, Mott thought this horse was a candidate for the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard. Instead, he’s in the main event after losing out to Commandment by a neck in the Fountain of Youth Stakes and a ½ length in the Florida Derby. You can call him the buzz horse of Derby week after a super workout last weekend. He’s got plenty of upside to be a factor in this race.
4. Potente (20-1): You simply can’t leave out Bob Baffert, especially with a horse purchased for $2.4 million as a yearling who is 1-1 against So Happy and posted a sizzling 5-furlong workout Sunday in 57.80 seconds. With his speed and class, he could very well be in front at the quarter pole. The question is how long he can hang on.
Without a strong conviction about one horse, formulating a coherent wagering strategy will be difficult. If Emerging Market goes off at anything close to 15-1, I will make a straight win bet while spreading some money around on him, So Happy and Chief Wallabee as the top horses for exactas and trifectas.
In the underneath slots for those wagers, I’ll also plan to use the following horses: Potente, Renegade (4-1), Commandment (6-1), The Puma (10-1), Incredibolt (20-1), Further Ado (6-1) and Fulleffort (20-1).
Best of luck to everyone on Derby Day!
