Making One Prediction For Each Player On Red Sox's Opening Day Roster

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Mar 26, 2026 - 07:30
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Making One Prediction For Each Player On Red Sox's Opening Day Roster
Boston Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony

Making One Prediction For Each Player On Red Sox's Opening Day Roster originally appeared on NESN. Add NESN as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

It's here, folks.

Opening Day!

The Boston Red Sox are getting ready to kickstart another regular season full of excitement, hope, and promise, and they will do so against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on Thursday -- with full coverage beginning at 2:30 p.m. ET on NESN.

Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony headline the club's initial active roster that was finalized on Wednesday. It's a pretty good one, so in celebration of their accomplishment and baseball's return let's toss out one prediction for each player that can be revisited in six months if they come true and ignored if they don't:

2026 Boston Red Sox (Player Predictions)

INF Isiah Kiner-Falefa (No. 2)
Kiner-Falefa has traditionally fared better against right-handers (.267/.311/.355) than left-handers (.251/.311/.33), but we expect that to change as he will be given ample opportunities against the latter due to the expected platoon at second base -- making him worth his surprisingly expensive price tag.

OF Ceddanne Rafaela (No. 3)
Rafaela has appeared in 308 total games across his first two full seasons in 2024 (152) and 2025 (156), but those numbers should dip given the organization's outfield depth. If they actually want to keep these guys fresh, they'll have to be proactive.

INF Caleb Durbin (No. 5)
Durbin will more than double his career home run total (11) with the help of Fenway Park.

OF Masataka Yoshida (No. 7)
Yoshida's at-bats will see a sudden spike after the trade deadline...

INF Trevor Story (No. 10)
Story has made just seven appearances as a designated hitter since joining the Red Sox in 2022, but will outpace that number alone in 2026.

INF Marcelo Mayer (No. 11)
Mayer will be a platoon player throughout the majority of his sophomore season, and will make appearances at second base, third base, and shortstop.

C Connor Wong (No. 12)
Worcester, Mass.

OF Jarren Duran (No. 16)
Duran will tap back into his power and speed, surpassing his home run (16) and stolen base (24) totals from 2025. I'd go as far as to say that he can combine for more than 50.

OF Roman Anthony (No. 19)
Anthony will be a top-five finisher in the race for American League MVP.

RHP Garrett Whitlock (No. 22)
Whitlock will surpass his previous career total of 10 saves in 2026.

RHP Johan Oviedo (No. 29)
Oviedo, despite starting the season in the bullpen, will pitch more innings as a starter than Connelly Early and Payton Tolle.

INF Andruw Monasterio (No. 32)
Monasterio will be the primary backup first baseman, surpassing 100.0 innings played in 2026.

LHP Garrett Crochet (No. 35)
Crochet will have less strikeouts (255) than he did in 2025, but his ERA (2.59) will improve and he will win the 2026 American League CY Young Award.

OF Willson Contreras (No. 40)
Contreras will have a career renaissance during his first season in Boston, surpassing his previous career-best marks for home runs (24), doubles (31), and runs batted in (80) -- while also cementing himself as a Gold Glove candidate at first base in 2026.

LHP Aroldis Chapman (No. 44)
Chapman will somehow get larger...

LHP Jovani Moran (No. 47)
Moran will be optioned more than anyone else on the roster. Sorry.

OF Wilyer Abreu (No. 52)
30/100.

RHP Sonny Gray (No. 54)
Gray had more control last season than in perhaps any season prior, finishing with only five total hit by pitches/wild pitches. I don't want to jinx the guy, but he combined for 10 and 12 in his two prior seasons, so...

LHP Ranger Suarez (No. 55)
Suarez is a big-game pitcher, as he finished with a 1.48 ERA in 11 postseason appearances for the Philadelphia Phillies. The Red Sox signed him to continue producing to that extent for them, and he will, as that number will only improve after this postseason.

RHP Ryan Watson (No. 56)
Worcester, Mass.

RHP Greg Weissert (No. 57)
Weissert has carved out quite the role for himself over the last two seasons, finishing with an 3.13 ERA in 2024 and an 2.82 ERA in 2025. Could that number continue to drop in 2026?

Yep!

RHP Justin Slaten (No. 63)
Slaten will finish with more holds than Garrett Whitlock in 2026.

RHP Brayan Bello (No. 66)
Bello's once-revered changeup has unfortunately regressed, as it went from being his best putaway pitch in 2024 (23.5%) to one that barely got him any outs in 2025 (17.2%) -- though he has refined that pitch and since added a curveball. If I were allowed to use the eyeball emoji, I would!

Bello's changeup will not only help him get more outs this season, but it will combine with his curveball to get him more than half of his outs.

LHP Danny Coulombe (No. 67)
"Do you remember when _____ ________ was on the Red Sox?"

Coulombe will one day be one of those guys.

LHP Connelly Early (No. 71)
Early hasn't pitched more than 103 2/3 innings in a single season since being drafted in 2023, so don't expect him to suddenly hit 150+ -- but man, the innings he does pitch will be fun...

C Carlos Narváez (No. 75)
Narváez is another one of those guys who needs to be protected, so don't expect him to make 118 appearances again in 2026. I think he will be better off for it, though, as he will be one of the club's All-Star representatives in Philadelphia.

2026 Boston Red Sox (Season Predictions)

Record: 92-70
MVP: Roman Anthony
Hitter of the Year: Roman Anthony
Pitcher of the Year: Garrett Crochet
Rookie of the Year: Connelly Early
Breakout Player of the Year: Wilyer Abreu

More MLB: Red Sox Officially Reveal 26-Man Roster On Eve Of Opening Day

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