NCAA tournament Sweet 16: Re-ranking the women's contenders by championship potential

A little louder from the back if anyone had five ACC teams in their Sweet 16 back in December. Or heck, earlier this month. 

OK, we hear you, Courtney Banghart.

The ACC took the heat of “down year” claims and came out of the fire bolder than ever. Their champion, Duke, and runner-up Louisville are still in the field, as well as Banghart’s North Carolina Tar Heels, and two teams playing the underdog role. No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 10 Virginia, the true Cinderella of the field, are playing for spots in the Elite Eight. 

All six of the top SEC teams are led by No. 1 seeds South Carolina and Texas. The field is completed by three Big Ten teams, one Big 12 and the Big East behemoth, No. 1 overall seed UConn. 

The tournament shifts to Fort Worth and Sacramento for super-regional action beginning Friday. A bunch of rematches are on deck, including three games of conference teams in the era of bloated leagues. 

Who has the best chance at a national championship next month in Phoenix? Here’s the most to least likely based on team and path through the bracket. 

So sorry, Banghart, but the Tar Heels are stuck at the bottom as the next opponent in front of UConn’s wrecking ball.

1. Connecticut (36-0) | Fort Worth 1

How it got here: Defeated No. 16 UTSA, 90-52; No. 9 Syracuse, 98-45
Up next: No. 4 North Carolina
Region final: No. 2 Vanderbilt or No. 6 Notre Dame

Ridiculous. Nonsense. Unfair. All sorts of words were tossed into the ether as UConn went up 33-8 on Syracuse in the first quarter, and 65-12 into the half before letting off the gas. Azzi Fudd’s 34 points and eight 3s (on 11 attempts) tied career highs. They flexed a level of depth, defense, ball movement and versatility few, if any, in the field possess. The Huskies are a demolition truck going downhill toward Phoenix.  

2. Texas (33-3) | Fort Worth 4

How it got here: Defeated No. 16 Missouri State, 87-45; No. 8 Oregon, 100-58
Up next: No. 5 Kentucky
Region final: No. 2 Louisville or No. 3 Michigan

What a time for a career day. Texas is among the deepest teams in the field, but it still needs to funnel primarily through three-time All-American junior Madison Booker. And she delivered with a career-best 40 points to pull away from Oregon in a second-round game that was too close early on for head coach Vic Schaefer’s comfort. 

Texas defeated Kentucky, 64-53, in their sole meeting on Feb. 9. The Longhorns’ defense hasn’t allowed more than 68 points since its 86-70 loss to Vanderbilt on Feb. 12. 

3. UCLA (33-1) | Sacramento 2

How it got here: Defeated No. 16 Cal Baptist, 96-43; No. 8 Oklahoma State 87, 68
Up next: No. 4 Minnesota
Region final: No. 2 LSU or No. 3 Duke

Head coach Cori Close was not happy with a sluggish start to the tournament — and a failure to control the controllables — by the most experienced team she’s ever had at UCLA. 

“It was unacceptable,” Close said. “It's not the fact that we missed shots. It's when we don't execute the scouting report, when we are lackadaisical, when we don't communicate, when we're not connected.” 

They properly answered, then came out with a stronger showing in the second round to secure their fourth consecutive Sweet 16. That has been and remains the concern with the Bruins: what happens when they’re punched early with no response against an elite team in the coming rounds? 

4. South Carolina (33-3) | Sacramento 4

How it got here: Defeated No. 16 Southern, 103-34;
Up next: No. 4 Oklahoma
Region final: No. 3 TCU or No. 10 Virginia 

South Carolina keeps knocking down records. The No. 1 seed Gamecocks set the largest margin of victory in program history at 69 points, and for the first time scored 100 points twice in the same tournament. They won by a combined 109 points this weekend, a sign that the fire head coach Dawn Staley lit in her team after the SEC championship game is still burning. 

The Gamecocks are experienced behind senior Raven Johnson, with one of the best players in the country in Joyce Edwards, and a seasoned bench few can roll out. The rematch with Oklahoma, the only SEC team to defeat them in the regular season, is their most difficult opponent until the Final Four. 

5. LSU (29-5) | Sacramento 2

How it got here: Defeated No. 15 Jacksonville, 116-58; No. 7 Texas Tech, 101-47
Up next: No. 3 Duke
Region final: No. 1 UCLA or No. 4 Minnesota 

The Tigers flaunted their offense during the first weekend with back-to-back 100-plus performances, breaking the NCAA Division I record with 16 such games this season. Flau’jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams each scored 24 in a near-flawless second-round victory. Johnson is the key to a long run, and her home finale indicated she’s leaving it all on the floor. If there was one main issue, it was losing MiLayshia Fulwiley early to foul trouble. 

Duke is better than its 93-77 loss to LSU in December, but it faces a tall challenge in limiting this guard group, particularly when forward Kate Koval establishes herself in the paint. 

6. Duke (26-8) | Sacramento 2

How it got here: Defeated No. 14 Charleston, 81-64; No. 6 Baylor, 69-46
Up next: No. 2 LSU
Region final: No. 1 UCLA or No. 4 Minnesota 

The Blue Devils weren’t as crisp to start the tournament as their top-seed counterparts, but ironed it out to hold Baylor to its worst offensive output of the season. The Bears failed to make a 3-pointer for the first time this year in what Duke head coach Kara Lawson called “one of our better defensive efforts of the season.” They allow on average 58.7 points per game. 

That will need to travel to Sacramento to limit the whack-a-mole, fire-powered offense employed by LSU. The Tigers average 95.1 points per game and have never fallen below 61. They lost both games in which they scored fewer than 65. Duke forward Toby Fournier will need to stay out of foul trouble, which she hasn’t done this month. 

7. Louisville (29-7) | Fort Worth 3

How it got here: Defeated No. 14 Vermont, 72-52; No. 6 Alabama, 69-68
Up next: No. 2 Michigan
Region final: No. 1 Texas or No. 5 Kentucky

Jeff Walz took flak for his sarcastic response at the ACC tournament that Louisville hasn’t lived up to the standard, but he wasn’t wrong in his overall point. The Cardinals are back in the Sweet 16 after a single — yes, one — year away last year. 

The last time they missed the second weekend was 2016. Louisville is such a balanced team that sophomore Imari Berry’s poor shooting day meant a better showing for a teammate, and a berth was clinched anyway. They’ll have the size advantage over a Michigan team without a clear inside presence. 

8. Vanderbilt (29-4) | Fort Worth 1

How it got here: Defeated No. 15 High Point, 102-61; No. 7 Illinois, 75-57
Up next: No. 6 Notre Dame
Region final: No. 1 UConn or No. 4 North Carolina 

It’s all going to plan ahead of schedule for fifth-year head coach Shea Ralph. The Commodores are into the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2009. Sophomore guard and Division I scoring leader Mikayla Blakes averaged 27.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 7 assists and 2 steals over the two games. 

Vanderbilt and Notre Dame are going to attempt to slow or frustrate each other’s superstars. Whoever is more successful might just win their team an Elite Eight berth.

9. Notre Dame (24-10) | Fort Worth 1

How it got here: Defeated No. 11 Fairfield, 79-60; No. 3 Ohio State, 83-73
Up next: No. 2 Vanderbilt
Region final: No. 1 UConn or No. 4 North Carolina 

Notre Dame, the second-highest seed in the pack, is in its fifth consecutive Sweet 16, seeking an Elite Eight berth for the first time under sixth-year head coach Niele Ivey. They had to fight back from an 11-0 deficit to start versus Ohio State, and held off the Buckeyes in the fourth quarter to win. 

“We've been through moments where we've had rough starts and we had to crawl back,” junior Hannah Hidalgo said. “Because of that adversity, because of how we started this season, we've been able to figure it out.”

Hidalgo averaged 24.5 points, 11 rebounds, 4 assists and 8 steals in the two wins. The third-leading scorer in Division I neared a quadruple-double in the first game. It would have been an NCAA tournament first. 

10. Michigan (27-6) | Fort Worth 3

How it got here: Defeated No. 15 Holy Cross, 84-48; No. 7 NC State, 92-63
Up next: No. 3 Louisville
Region final: No. 1 Texas or No. 5 Kentucky 

The Wolverines’ sophomore trio draws outsized attention — we’ll get to that — but it was the defensive pressure that frustrated an NC State team without leading guard Zoe Brooks. In one stretch, the full-court pressure resulted in six quick points. 

Michigan’s Olivia Olson (27 points), Syla Swords (26) and Mila Holloway (13) combined for two-thirds of their scoring output and shot a combined 43%. It’s that caliber of Wolverines team that can come within a few possessions of the No. 1 seeds, as they have throughout the season. 

11. Virginia (22-11) | Sacramento 4

How it got here: Defeated No. 10 Arizona State, 57-55; No. 7 Georgia, 82-73; No. 2 Iowa, 83-75
Up next: No. 3 TCU
Region final: No. 1 South Carolina or No. 4 Oklahoma

No. 10 Virginia is coming into the Sweet 16 confident, and that’s a dangerous thing in March. The Cavaliers are the true Cinderella of this tournament, becoming the first First Four team to reach the second weekend since it was introduced in 2022. They’re playing with a level of urgency and house money ripe for a March run, and TCU is a little shaky. 

Kymora Johnson, the Cavaliers’ local recruit and ACC’s second-best scorer, is averaging 24.3 points per game in the tournament. 

12. TCU (31-5) | Sacramento 4

How it got here: Defeated No. 14 UC San Diego, 86-40; No. 6 Washington, 62-59 (OT)
Up next: No. 10 Virginia
Region final: No. 1 South Carolina or No. 4 Oklahoma

That was quite the sweet escape from the Horned Frogs. Olivia Miles admitted to crashing out multiple times, but kept her collegiate career alive with key buckets and assists late to outlast a feisty Washington team. 

The battle between Miles and Kymora Johnson will be one of the best of the next round. If TCU is to advance, Miles has to be on it early, and Marta Suarez needs to avoid foul trouble.  

13.  Kentucky (25-10) | Fort Worth 3

How it got here: Defeated No. 12 James Madison, 71-56; No. 4 West Virginia, 74-73
Up next: No. 1 Texas
Region final: No. 2 Louisville or No. 3 Michigan

After falling on the wrong side of a missed bucket a year ago, fifth-seeded Kentucky head coach Kenny Brooks is choosing to smell the roses on the right side of one. 

The flowers will be wilted by the time they meet Texas in Fort Worth, three hours north of the Longhorns’ Austin home. Forwards Clara Strack and Teonni Key can make things difficult in the paint, so it will fall on senior point guard Tonie Morgan and the backcourt crew to keep pace with Texas’ depth. 

14. Minnesota (24-8) | Sacramento 2

How it got here: Defeated No. 13 Green Bay, 75-58; No. 5 Ole Miss, 65-63
Up next: No. 1 UCLA
Region final: No. 2 LSU or No. 3 Duke

Amaya Battle lived her own childhood countdown moment, and the No. 4 Gophers are back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005 with a largely homegrown collection of talent. Credit to them for giving fans a side of excitement to the chalky bracket. 

Ole Miss star Cotie McMahon fouling out helped the cause. The Gophers will face a tougher task in the high-motor offense of UCLA in a Big Ten rematch. They attempted nearly 20 more shot attempts, but didn’t hit them at the same level as UCLA and lost, 76-58, on Jan. 14. 

15. Oklahoma (26-7) | Sacramento 4

How it got here: Defeated No. 13 Idaho, 89-59; No. 5 Michigan State, 77-71
Up next: No. 1 South Carolina
Region final: No. 3 TCU or No. 10 Virginia 

Senior center Raegan Beers is the No. 4 Sooners’ foundation and sets the tone physically. Yet, it’s the success of freshman Aaliyah Chavez that determines if it will be a good day for the Sooners. It has taken her some time in games to settle in, and head coach Jennie Baranczyk said after the second-round win that she’s still developing the decision-making of an elite point guard. 

“There's time and place that she's going to have to continue to make plays, and she's learning that,” head coach Baranczyk said.  

The last time they met South Carolina, Chavez scored 15 of her 26 points in overtime to serve the Gamecocks their only SEC regular season loss. South Carolina head coach Dawn Staley isn’t liable to let it happen again. 

16. North Carolina (28-7) | Fort Worth 1

How it got here: Defeated No. 13 Western Illinois, 82-51; No. 5 Maryland, 74-66
Up next: No. 1 UConn
Region final: No. 2 Vanderbilt or No. 6 Notre Dame 

The fourth-seeded Tar Heels draw the short straw in these rankings simply because their next opponent is UConn. And that doesn’t bode well for anyone. The Tar Heels like to shoot 3s and own the glass, but neither levels up to UConn’s ability at both.