NFL playoff picture: Bears seeding scenarios entering Week 18 schedule

Ben Johnson had three goals for the 2025 regular season.

The first-year Bears’ head coach reached two of those check marks, winning 11 games and clinching the NFC North title, but after the 42-38 loss to the 49ers at Levi’s Stadium last Sunday night, Johnson’s team will not be able to obtain his third goal –  the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 

However, the No. 2 and No. 3 seeds are still in play, and Chicago (11-5) can earn that second seed with a win over the Detroit Lions at Soldier Field to close out the 2025 regular season. 

“We’re playing to win this week,” Johnson said. 

[READ: Ben Johnson clearly states Bears’ approach vs Lions in NFL Week 18 game]

Here are all the ways the Bears can secure the No. 2 seed in Week 18:

• Bears defeat Lions OR
• Bears tie vs. Lions and Eagles tie vs. Commanders

OR

• Commanders defeat Eagles

As the No. 2 seed, the Bears would host a playoff game at Soldier Field against the Green Bay Packers, who are locked in as the No. 7 seed. The Bears split the regular-season series and would face the Packers for the third time since Dec. 7. 

Here are the ways the Bears would finish as the No. 3 seed.

• Bears lose to the Lions and Eagles win or tie against the Commanders
• Bears tie vs. the Lions and Eagles defeat the Commanders

As the No. 3 seed, the Bears would face one of two NFC West playoff teams: the San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams.

To play the 49ers: 

• Seahawks defeat 49ers and Rams defeat Cardinals 

The last time the Bears played the 49ers, they combined for 80 total points in a shootout on Sunday Night Football. Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers defeated the Bears in the primetime matchup, but a second meeting between the two teams would be at Soldier Field. 

[READ: Bears report card: Team grades in NFL Week 17 loss to 49ers]

To play the Rams:

• Seahawks beat 49ers and Cardinals defeat Rams

OR

• 49ers defeat Seahawks and Falcons defeat Rams in Week 17, which already happened

OR

• 49ers defeat Seahawks and Cardinals defeat Rams

The Bears played the Rams in Week 4 of the 2024 season. Chicago didn’t allow Matthew Stafford to throw a touchdown and intercepted him once in the 24-18 victory at Soldier Field.

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