NFL Week 4 Survivor/Eliminator Picks

Sep 25, 2025 - 20:00

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Week 3 was kind of a bloodbath in NFL Survivor contests. Losses by the Packers and Falcons to, respectively, the Browns and Panthers ravaged the field, with reportedly 20-25% of entrants eliminated in the biggest contests. It was a massacre.

Unless, of course, you followed my picks!

In the saddest bragging of all time, yes, I’m now 3-0 in my NFL Eliminator picks for 2025, because I chose the Chiefs to beat the Giants in the Sunday night game last week instead of taking the Packers over the Browns or the Falcons over the Panthers. Does that mean I’m better than everyone else? That’s for the history books to decide.

Check out the process for my Week 3 pick below. And if you’re into numbers, don’t miss Aaron Schatz’s legendary content and our StatsHub advanced stats research tool for next-level insights.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 4

Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. Also, just for the record — this game is “once you use a team, they’re off the board,” so I won’t pick a team I’ve already used. That said, I won’t eliminate a team until I get to my final decision, because we don’t know if you used the team I used.

Opponent Is Too Good

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it’s too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings.

Atlanta Falcons (vs. Washington)
Baltimore Ravens (@ Kansas City)
Cleveland Browns (@ Detroit)
Dallas Cowboys (vs. Green Bay)
Indianapolis Colts (@ LA Rams)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Baltimore
Los Angeles Rams (vs. Indianapolis)
New Orleans Saints (@ Buffalo)
New York Giants (vs. LA Chargers)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Philadelphia)

That gives us 10 teams off the board with 22 to go.

They’re Too Bad

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you’re the second-worst team, well, I’m still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We’ll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12.

Carolina Panthers (@ New England)
Cincinnati Bengals (@ Denver)
Houston Texans (vs. Tennessee)
Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Chicago)
Miami Dolphins (vs. NY Jets)
New England Patriots (vs. Carolina)
New York Jets (@ Miami)
Tennessee Titans (@ Houston)

That’s another eight teams gone. There are 14 left.

Island Games

This one isn’t a hard-and-fast category — if I don’t have another pick I like and feel like a prime-time (or Europe) game is just the overwhelming choice, I might double back. But generally speaking, the spotlight games are just weird. That’s not analysis, but also you know I’m right. I would much rather avoid games on Thursday, Sunday or Monday night, and I’d especially like to avoid overseas games.

Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seattle)
Denver Broncos (vs. Cincinnati)
Green Bay Packers (@ Dallas)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Pittsburgh in Ireland)
Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Minnesota in Ireland)
Seattle Seahawks (@ Arizona

Six more gone, leaving us with our final eight.

The Contenders

Once we’re down to this small a number of teams, we’re done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. And this week, I’m also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Buffalo Bills (vs. New Orleans)

Model Projection: Bills win 29.93-19.05; Bills 75.6% win rate

Pros: The No. 1 team in our power rankings faces the No. 31 team. That’s … a real big gap.

Cons: Literally the only con I can think of is “Maybe you want to save the Bills for later.”

Chicago Bears (@ Las Vegas)

Model Projection: Raiders win 23.40-21.25; Bears 44.0% win rate

Pros: The Bears broke out last week in a big way and maybe opened new doors? Meanwhile, the Raiders have been big-time disappointing.

Cons: We can’t dismiss the contributions of the woeful Dallas defense to Chicago’s breakout last week. Taking them on the road in a game our model thinks they’ll lose is a big leap of faith.

Detroit Lions (vs. Cleveland)

Model Projection: Lions win 27.79-18.73; Lions 71.0% win rate

Pros: It’s not quite the gap of Buffalo-New Orleans, but Detroit is No. 4 in our power rankings and Cleveland is No. 25.

Cons: This Cleveland defense might be a Demogorgon. (I don’t watch Stranger Things; did I use that right?) Picking against them is surprisingly scary.

Jacksonville Jaguars (@ San Francisco)

Model Projection: 49ers 25.60-20.24; Jaguars 35.7% win rate

Pros: San Francisco is running low on players. Nick Bosa is the latest one to go down.

Cons: Pretty much everything except what I wrote above. The Jaguars haven’t put a lot together this season and now have to travel across the country.

Los Angeles Chargers (@ NY Giants)

Model Projection: Chargers 27.57-16.81; Chargers 77.5% win rate

Pros: A 3-0 team against an 0-3 team that has been so bad it has had to bench its starting quarterback.

Cons: What is Jaxson Dart surprises everyone?

Philadelphia Eagles (@ Tampa Bay)

Model Projection: Eagles 25.43-21.90; Eagles 59.2% win rate

Pros: The Eagles haven’t lost in a game Jalen Hurts played beginning to end since Week 4 last year. And Tampa might get Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin Jr. back this week but (a) they’ll likely be limited, and (b) they’ve lost a bunch of other O-linemen and receivers.

Cons: Despite being 3-0, the Eagles haven’t looked great this year (they’re not even top 10 in DVOA).

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Jacksonville)

Model Projection: 49ers 25.60-20.24; 49ers 64.3% win rate

Pros: It looks like (but isn’t a guarantee) the 49ers will get Brock Purdy and Jauan Jennings back this week, while Christian McCaffrey remains healthy. Meanwhile, the Jaguars are 2-1, but the next time they look impressive will be the first.

Cons: The law that was passed some time in the last few years that says no 49er is allowed to be healthy for more than 20 minutes at a time.

Washington Commanders (@ Atlanta)

Model Projection: Falcons 22.89-21.51; Commanders 46.1% win rate

Pros: It looks like Jayden Daniels should return this week, while the Falcons appear to be a mess. You’re never excited when your team is answering “Should we start Kirk Cousins?” questions.

Cons: Even if Daniels returns, it sounds like Terry McLaurin might be out. And the Atlanta defense is surprisingly frisky.

The Pick

Green Bay Packers (@ Dallas)

I broke my rule! But you know, I did say (in my best Captain Barbossa voice) that particular rule was more of a guideline. Because sure, you don’t want to take island games given how weird they can be, but Sunday night is the closest thing to an exception to that rule. And in this particular game, the Packers are coming off of an embarrassing loss, while the Cowboys have had the worst defense in football and now the offense will likely be without CeeDee Lamb, Tyler Booker and Cooper Beebe. And while I think there’s no question the Bills win, that’s a team you want to save, given their schedule the rest of the season.

The Model projects the Packers to win 66.7% of the time, with a score projection of 26.75 to 20.26.