No. 13 Michigan State vs. No. 8 Purdue predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets for February 26

Feb 26, 2026 - 22:00

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No. 13 Michigan State vs. No. 8 Purdue predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends and best bets for February 26

West Lafayette is the site of college basketball’s biggest game of the night as the Purdue Boilermakers (22-5, 12-4) host the Spartans of Michigan State (22-5, 12-4). Currently tied for fourth in the Big Ten (second in the loss column), these schools realistically could finish as high as second in the regular season but only if they win tonight at Mackey Arena.

The Spartans have won their last two but are just 3-3 in their last six games. Minus seven players from last season’s team that won 30 games and the Big Ten Tournament, it is probably safe to say Tom Izzo has exceeded expectations with an overhauled roster. The players may be different, but the blueprint is the same as it has been for years under Izzo: tenacious, physical defense that extends beyond the three-point line and solid on the boards at both ends ranked 7^th nationally with a +12.7 rebound advantage per game). The Spartans rank 20^th in the country allowing just 66.1 points per game.

It has been rare this season when Purdue has not been able to score the basketball. The Boilermakers have won five of their last six and averaged 82 points per game in the process. Just as the Spartans’ gameplan for success has remained consistent over the last decade plus, the same can be said for Purdue. The Boilermakers are elite at distributing the ball and making the extra pass. Their 19.7 assists per game ranks third in the country and their assist to turnover ratio is the best in the nation (2.16). Matt Painter’s squad ranks just 149^th in the country in 3-point attempts but 19^th shooting 38% from beyond the arc.

KenPom has Purdue ranked seventh in the country while Sparty is ranked No. 11. The Net also ranks the Boilermakers at No. 7. Michigan State is No. 12 in the Net. Purdue has a record of 8-5 in Quad 1 games and 4-0 in Quad 2 contests. Michigan State is 6-5 in Quad 1 affairs and 2-0 in Quad 2 games.

Lets take a closer look at tonight’s matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

Game Details and How to Watch Live: No. 13 Michigan State at No. 8 Purdue

Date: Thursday, February 26, 2026
Time: 8PM EST
Site: Mackey Arena
City: West Lafayette, IN
Network/Streaming: Peacock

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Game Odds: No. 13 Michigan State at No. 8 Purdue

The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Michigan State Spartans (+280), Purdue Boilermakers (-355)
Spread: Purdue -7.5
Total: 142.5 points

This game opened Purdue -5.5 with the Total set at 139.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!

Expected Starting Lineups: No. 13 Michigan State at No. 8 Purdue

Michigan State Spartans

G Jeremy Fears Jr.
F Jordan Scott
F Jaxon Kohler
F Coen Carr
C Carson Cooper

Purdue Boilermakers

G Braden Smith
G Fletcher Loyer
G C.J. Cox
F Trey Kaufman-Renn
C Oscar Cluff

Injury Report: Michigan State at Purdue

Michigan State Spartans

Divine Ugochukwu (foot) has been declared OUT for tonight’s game
Kaleb Glenn (knee) has been declared OUT for tonight’s game

Purdue Boilermakers

No Injuries to Report

Important stats, trends and insights: No. 13 Michigan State at No. 8 Purdue

Purdue is 12-3 at home this season
Michigan State is 4-3 on the road this season
Michigan State is 14-13 ATS overall this season / 3-4 ATS on the road
Purdue is 13-14 ATS overall this season / 5-10 ATS at home
The OVER has cashed in 11 of Michigan State’s 27 games this season (11-16)
The OVER has cashed in 12 of Purdue’s 27 games this season (12-15)
The OVER has cashed in the last 2 games between Michigan State and Purdue
Purdue has earned a Top 4 seed in 8 straight NCAA Tournaments (tied for the 4th-longest streak in NCAA Tournament history)
Jeremy Fears leads the nation in assists at 9.2 per game
Sunday’s game against the Buckeyes snapped a streak of 4 straight games with double-figure assists (he finished with 8)
Braden Smith ranks second in the Big Ten and the nation averaging 8.7 assists per game
Smithis the only player in the history of Division 1 basketball with 1,700 points, 900 assists and 600 rebounds

Rotoworld Best Bet

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Here are the best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between Michigan State and Purdue:

Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on Michigan State +7.5 ATS
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 142.5.

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