📊 Opta predicts Inter top, Napoli struggle, Roma above Juve, Milan

Aug 23, 2025 - 14:00

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📊 Opta predicts Inter top, Napoli struggle, Roma above Juve, Milan

August is the month of predictions. At the bar, on social media, during breaks at the Fantasy auction. But there are those who don't speak: they calculate.

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The Opta Predictor is a supercomputer that lines up data and numbers. It doesn't leave room for "gut" impressions: the merit and perhaps also the flaw of one of the most advanced mathematical models in the world of football.

What is the Opta Predictor

Based on strengths and weaknesses, historical results, and performance indices, the Opta Predictor simulates the championship 10,000 times. From there, it extracts the probabilities of the Scudetto, Champions League, Europa League, and even the final standings. A cold but precise snapshot to which we try to give reasons.

Why Inter is the favorite

Inter leads the projections with a 36.09% chance of winning the Scudetto: almost three times that of Napoli. An estimated 76 points by the end of the championship, enough to stay ahead of everyone. Champions? Almost guaranteed: 78.25%.

The algorithm sees a solid team that has retained its most important players and not only that: it has acquired others. Objectively, today's Inter has more options compared to the one that reached the Champions League final, and Opta knows this.

However, subtleties are difficult to quantify: does the change from Inzaghi to Chivu have an exact success rate? No one can know, also because Chivu's numbers among professionals might not be sufficient to create a case study.

Napoli is not favored

Reigning champion, strengthened squad, Antonio Conte on the bench. The calling card is that of the team to beat. Yet, for Opta, it is not so. Napoli starts behind. Far behind. It could be due to the double European commitment, or the trust given to the Nerazzurri: the supercomputer thinks so.

13.25% chance of winning the Scudetto, almost a third compared to Inter. Conte said: "We have to give Inter, Juve, and Milan a hard time". But for the supercomputer, it might not be enough.

Atalanta almost like Napoli

New coach, sale of top scorer Retegui, and a "Lookman case" shaking the environment. Yet, for the supercomputer, Juric's Atalanta remains up there, almost hand in hand with Napoli.

The simulations give them a 13.18% chance of winning the Scudetto and over a 51% chance of returning to the Champions League. A clear signal: for Opta, Bergamo does not give in to change. La Dea changes face, but not ambition.

Roma better than Milan and Juventus

Behind the top two, the surprise is Roma. A year ago, the Scudetto was possible at 0.8%, today the final victory is at10.29%. The Gasperini effect, which enhances the players and brings the Giallorossi close to the Champions (45.92%).

For Milan, Massimiliano Allegri's history speaks for itself. The algorithm overlooks the offensive imperfections of Max's recent seasons, and perhaps the coach himself would agree: "When you don't attack, you shouldn't be ashamed to defend well, because the final goal is the result that must be achieved in any way". But what is this result? Not the 1st place for Opta: 7.46% chance of winning the Scudetto and 37.70% for the Champions League.

Juventus under Tudor gathers numbers similar to Milan, through different methods: no upheavals, great continuity, and a calmer environment without needing to plan reconstructions. For the Bianconeri, there's a 7.33% chance of winning the Scudetto and 38.29% chance of reaching the Champions League.

Milan: 7.46% Scudetto – 37.70% Champions
Juventus: 7.33% Scudetto – 38.29% Champions
Roma: 10.29% Scudetto - 45.92% Champions

Champions League Battle

Others look at the fourth place as a possible goal. Lazio (4.70% Scudetto – 29.68% Champions), Bologna (3.29% – 24.45%), and Fiorentina (2.95% – 21.50%) compete for the role of outsiders.

Lazio: Scudetto 4.70% | CL 29.68% | EL 9.59%
Bologna: Scudetto 3.29% | CL 24.45% | EL 9.01%
Fiorentina: Scudetto 2.95% | CL 21.50% | EL 8.78%

Then there are Como and Torino, small surprises with potential growth. Low percentages, but Opta lists them as potential exploits.