Ultimate 2026 World Cup betting preview: Odds, best bets for every group, Golden Boot and winner
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The 2026 World Cup will be the biggest sporting event held in the United States since sports betting was widely legalized in 2018, meaning a huge amount of American eyeballs and money will be on these games.
We're still several months out from first kick on June 11, but there are plenty of betting options available for casual and sophisticated punters alike.
Below is a bet I like in every group, along with my value bets for the Golden Boot and 2026 World Cup title winner.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Group stage
A reminder about the format for this newly-expanded tournament. The 48 teams were drawn into 12 groups of four. After round-robin group play, the top two teams in each group advance to the round of 32, as do the eight best third-place teams.
From a betting perspective, this means odds to advance will be less enticing, since most groups will have only one team with plus-odds to go through.
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Also remember that six groups include a team yet to be determined, as those spots will be filled in March by playoff winners. That may affect the odds drastically. In Group B for example, the playoff winner could be four-time champion Italy or a Northern Ireland side that hasn’t made the World Cup in 40 years.
Here are my current best bets for every group. I’ll update this file as more teams are determined via the playoff winners.
Group A
Mexico +130
TBD +150
South Korea +350
South Africa 12-1
Group A may have the most question marks of any group. Host Mexico’s squad is rife with injuries, including defensive linchpin Edson Alvarez, who had ankle surgery last month. El Tri also haven’t yet replaced Guillermo Ochoa in goal, leading to speculation that Ochoa could return for a sixth World Cup. All of those issues scare me away from taking Mexico to win Group A (+130). Plus, the quality of the to-be-determined team could range from a group favorite in Denmark to another relative minnow in North Macedonia.
I don’t love any Group A play at the moment, though South Korea (+350) would be my choice for group winner if I had to make one now.
Best bet: South Korea to win Group A (+350)
Group B
TBD +110
Switzerland +125
Canada +450
Qatar 33-1
Classic Swiss consistency is a strength and a weakness for a side that has always been steady but rarely spectacular in recent tournaments. They’ve reached three straight World Cup knockout stages but gone out in the Round of 16 each time. However, they may have turned a corner at Euro 2024, where Murat Yakin’s side trounced Italy in the Round of 16 and outplayed England in the quarterfinals before going out on penalties.
Even if Italy qualifies from the playoff, Switzerland will be the most reliable team in the group, and host Canada doesn’t have the depth or ceiling to keep up. I’ll take the Swiss to win the group, with Breel Embolo (still only 29!) to at least match his two goals from the 2022 World Cup.
Best bet: Switzerland to win Group B (+125)
Group C
Brazil -550
Morocco +450
Scotland 12-1
Haiti 66-1
Five-time winner Brazil and 2022 semifinalist Morocco are understandably clear-cut favorites to be the top two teams in Group C. I don’t understand why Haiti is such a heavy favorite to finish last in the group (-575), so I love Scotland’s price to finish bottom (+500).
Haiti and Scotland face off in the opener, where the Haiti double chance is only +185. With a point or more there, Haiti will be in good position to double down on their defend-and-counter strategy that has frustrated Concacaf giants. Head coach Sébastien Migné was a Cameroon assistant at the 2022 World Cup, and his experience should help Haiti maintain a decent goal difference against the group favorites, and perhaps even sneak through to their first World Cup knockout stage behind Brazil and Morocco.
Best bet: Scotland to finish last in Group C (+500)
Group D
United States +100
Paraguay +260
TBD +320
Australia +800
The United States got a great draw in that Group D doesn’t feature any team definitively better than the Americans, with the possible exception of Turkiye should it qualify via the playoff. On the other hand, the U.S. is not head-and-shoulders above any of its opponents either, with the possible exception of a rugged yet limited Australia.
Unless Kosovo qualifies, the Aussies will have the lowest ceiling in the group, so I’ll take them to finish last (+145). They did get out of their group in 2022, but only by scraping 1-0 wins against Tunisia and Denmark. I’ll bet against their potentially stout defense holding up that well again, and Tim Cahill isn’t walking through the door to spearhead the attack.
On home soil and assuming enough key players are healthy, the U.S. should win this group, but I’m definitely not betting them at +100. They should then have a winnable Round of 32 game against a third-place team before potentially meeting Belgium or Egypt in the following game, so I don’t mind playing the U.S. to get eliminated in that round (+240) or in the quarterfinals (+500) if you’re more optimistic.
Best bet: Australia to finish last in Group D (+145)
Group E
Germany -325
Ecuador +350
Ivory Coast +750
Curacao 66-1
The biggest shock at the previous two World Cups was Germany going out in the group stage at both tournaments, ending a mind-boggling streak of reaching at least the quarterfinals at 16 straight World Cups. Germany still doesn’t have the usual cupboard of world-class talent, but with the forgiving format, I don’t see the four-time champs missing out on a third straight knockout stage.
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I do like Ecuador to win Group E (+350). In 18 qualifiers, Ecuador posted 13 shutouts and conceded a total of five goals, tying the CONMEBOL record low for a qualifying campaign. Chelsea’s Moises Caicedo may be Ecuador’s best-ever player, and he fronts a rock-solid back line that includes Willian Pacho (PSG), Piero Hincapie (Arsenal) and Pervis Estupiñán (Milan). The seemingly ageless Enner Valencia will have to keep scoring, but with six goals in qualifying, the 36-year-old appears to have the legs for one more run.
Best bet: Ecuador to win Group E (+350)
Group F
Netherlands -140
Japan +300
TBD +400
Tunisia +900
Four years ago, Japan finished atop a group that included Spain and Germany, so winning this group should be easy, right? It’s not that simple of course, given the talented and justifiably favored Dutch side, but I don’t see value in Netherlands at -140.
I’d rather take Japan to win the group again (+300). Hajime Moriyasu remains the head coach, and his deep squad is filled with players scattered across Europe’s top leagues, including Real Sociedad winger Takefusa Kubo and Eintracht’s Ritsu Doan. This team can do the things expected from a Japanese team, stylistically stringing passes together, and it can also be fast and physical in attacking and pressing. They have better odds than +300 at topping Group F.
Best bet: Japan to win Group F (+300)
Group G
*Sportsbooks have pulled Group G odds due to the uncertainly surrounding if Iran remains in the World Cup, something that is up in the air amidst current world events. We’ll update this group when odds are re-posted.
Group H
Spain -500
Uruguay +350
Saudi Arabia 22-1
Cape Verde 50-1
Spain and Uruguay are understandably massive favorites in Group H, leaving Saudi Arabia and debutant Cape Verde dueling to avoid finishing bottom.
Cape Verde’s Blue Sharks have little pedigree on the world stage or in top leagues, but they’ve been on the rise in Africa recently, making three Cup of Nations knockout stages since 2013 and nearly qualifying for the 2014 World Cup. With a flexible attacking system, they also have more upside than Herve Renard’s conservative Saudi side. I’ll bank on Cape Verde’s energy being the difference and bet Saudi Arabia to finish last (+125).
Also, I haven’t yet seen a price on Spain to win all three group games, but I’m planning to play that. Spain was the clear-cut best team at EURO 2024, and they’ve only gotten better since then.
Best bet: Saudi Arabia to finish last (+125)
Group I
France -220
Norway +275
Senegal +700
TBD 25-1
France may be the deepest team in the tournament, with an entire second squad that might be favored to win this group. Their price isn’t terrible (-220), but I’d rather look past second favorite Norway to reigning African champion Senegal, loaded with experience at top club and international levels.
The 34-year-old Sadio Mané leads a dangerous and fluid front line alongside Nicolas Jackson (Bayern) and Iliman Ndiaye (Everton), with Pape Sarr (Tottenham) and Idrissa Gueye (Everton) sitting behind them. Two former Chelsea men lead a strong defense, with Kalidou Koulibaly (Al-Hilal) at center back in front of standout keeper Edouard Mendy (Al-Ahli). They won’t be intimidated by France or Norway’s Erling Haaland, and the ceiling is there for Senegal to replicate its 2002 shock win over France and better its group runner-up finish from four years ago, especially at the long-shot price (+700).
Best bet: Senegal to win Group I (+700)
Group J
Argentina -300
Austria +450
Algeria +550
Jordan 33-1
Defending champion Argentina is the obvious big favorite to top Group J (-300), with Austria the joint-longest second favorite in any group (+450).
Regardless of Lionel Messi’s contributions, Argentina should still win Group J with ease, and I don’t see much difference between Algeria and Austria for second. Algeria features strong wingers including 34-year-old Riyad Mahrez (Al Ahli), Rayan Ait-Nouri (Man City) and Mohammed Amoura (Wolfsburg), and they should be able to find space behind Austria’s Red Bull-style press. That would put the Desert Warriors in fine position to finish ahead of Austria, so give me the exacta of Argentina winning Group J and Algeria coming in second (+190).
Jordan also looks completely outclassed at its first World Cup, so taking Jordan to finish last is appealing — even at -200 odds.
Best bet: Argentina wins Group J, Algeria second (+190)
Group K
Portugal -220
Colombia +185
TBD 18-1
Uzbekistan 33-1
After reaching the quarterfinals four years ago and winning Nations League last June, Portugal enters the World Cup as the sixth favorite (+1100). Roberto Martinez’s side has as much top-end talent and versatility as any nation, giving him plenty of tactical options, for better and worse. Yet I’d rather play Colombia to win the group at +225 (be sure to shop around) than pay the juice on Portugal at -220.
As mentioned above, Colombia has veteran big guns including Bayern’s Luis Diaz, Palmeiras’ Jhon Arias and Benfica’s Richard Rios, with Minnesota United’s James Rodríguez still pulling the strings. Debutant Uzbekistan and the playoff winner (DR Congo, Jamaica or New Caledonia) shouldn’t pose much of a challenge, so the Colombia-Portugal group finale will likely decide which team wins the group.
With the game in Miami, I see a heavily pro-Colombia crowd cheering their team to the top of Group K.
Best bet: Colombia to win Group K (+185)
Group L
England -325
Croatia +350
Ghana +900
Panama 33-1
England is the second tournament favorite (+550) and reasonably so given the talent on the field and new manager Thomas Tuchel, who wants to play a more aggressive style than England’s often ponderous play under Gareth Southgate. He has the players to do so, and it’s hard for me to see any other team topping this group, though I’m not rushing to play England at -325.
Croatia is the second group favorite (+350), but surely this is the tournament the fountain of youth expires for 40-year-old Luka Modric & Co., right?! Croatia may end up relying on five or more 30-somethings, and that’s a bridge too far for me to take them.
Instead, I’ll take Panama to advance (+220), trusting head coach Thomas Christiansen, who has led the team since 2020. Panama played like Concacaf favorites in qualifying, controlling games against inferior opposition, and they’ve also shown a cohesive ability to play against favored teams like the U.S. and Mexico. Powered by Coco Carrasquilla in midfield, Panama can pull an upset and get to the Round of 32.
Best bet: Panama to advance (+220)
World Cup winner
The last World Cup champion to open the tournament with title odds longer than 10-1 was Italy in 1982, so that leaves us with five real contenders, maybe two or three more if we stretch the number a bit to include Portugal (11-1), Germany (12-1) and Netherlands (16-1).
No country has successfully defended its World Cup title since 1962 Brazil, and Argentina (+800) won’t join that list. Brazil (+800) obviously has the talent but looked average in finishing fifth in CONMEBOL qualifying. Perhaps Carlo Ancelotti can work his magic, but I won’t believe that until I see it. There’s a strong case for England, but I’m not touching Thomas Tuchel at his first international tournament, especially at +550 odds.
That leaves favorite Spain (+400) and France (+700). Spain is the best team, and France has the most high-end talent, though Didier Deschamps is often too pragmatic in major tournaments. He knows how to navigate a group and a bracket though, and the price gap between these two teams shouldn’t be this large. I’ll make France my official pre-tournament title pick (+700).
If I had to go off the board, the long shot I like most is Colombia (33-1), which has as much upside as any team outside the favorites. Los Cafeteros are tournament-tested after reaching the Copa América 2024 final riding a team-record 28-game unbeaten streak, and they have multiple players who can carry a team, all poised to make a leap to stardom or superstardom. Playing in their hemisphere in a climate to which they’re more accustomed, I don’t mind a sprinkle on Colombia or even Ecuador (66-1) if you want to get nuts.
Best bet: France to win 2026 World Cup (+700)
Golden Boot
Let’s start with a few intuitive ground rules to determine worthy wagers for the Golden Boot market. The winner will likely:
Play for a top team. Five of the last six winners have come from traditional powers, and the exception (Colombia’s James Rodriguez in 2014) was from a second-tier contender playing on its home continent.
Go deep in the tournament. Related to the first point, the team of every winner since 1998 has made at least the quarterfinals, and with the additional knockout round this tournament, reaching the Round of 16 and playing five games is the baseline for picking a Golden Boot winner.
Take penalties. For Golden Boot purposes, penalties count the same as any other goal, and the last three winners have all converted at least one penalty.
The two players who best check those boxes are understandably the two favorites: France’s Kylian Mbappe (+600) and England’s Harry Kane (+700). Mbappe won the Golden Boot in 2022, and Kane did so in 2018. They play for two of the three favorites, and either is a reasonable choice again, though the odds are too short for me. A 38-year-old Lionel Messi (12-1), the 2022 Golden Boot runner-up, would be tempting if significant playing time were guaranteed, as would his teammate Lautauro Martinez (20-1) if Messi’s status were known.
I’m looking farther down the list at a couple long shots, though. Spain is justifiably the tournament favorite (+400), and Mikel Oyarzabal is the leading candidate to start at center forward. He shared the team lead with six goals in qualifying, taking two of Spain’s three penalties. A 33-1 price on the top scorer for the best team is too good to pass up, especially with group matchups versus the relatively weak Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde. I also like Brazil’s Raphina (33-1), as the most likely penalty taker for a Brazil side that gets Scotland and Haiti in the group stage. Neither player’s starting spot is completely certain, though few are at this point in the calendar.
Best bets: Spain’s Mikel Oyarzabal (33-1), Brazil’s Raphina (33-1)
