UNC basketball vs. Florida State game preview, info, prediction & more

After a week-long hiatus, college basketball returns to Chapel Hill as the North Carolina Tar Heels host the Florida State Seminoles at 7 p.m. ET on Monday night at the Dean Smith Center.

North Carolina (12-1) enters ACC play with its best start to a season since 2008-09, when the Tar Heels went on to win the national championship. In their most recent outing, they rolled past East Carolina 99-51 in their final nonconference game of the season in Chapel Hill on Dec. 22. Henri Veesaar (16 points, 10 rebounds) and Caleb Wilson (21 points, 12 rebounds, four blocks) both recorded double-doubles, while Luka Bogavac added 15 points.

Florida State (7-6), meanwhile, is coming off an 87-63 win over Jacksonville, giving the Seminoles two straight victories. That surge follows a five-game losing streak, and all seven of FSU’s wins have come against Quad 4 opponents, as the Seminoles have struggled against teams in higher quads.

North Carolina has a chance to open ACC play with a statement win over a Florida State team that has struggled on both ends of the court. The Tar Heels will look not only to secure a victory but to do so in dominant fashion.

Keep reading below for our full game preview of North Carolina’s ACC opener, including the Tar Heels’ key to victory, something to watch, statistical leaders for each team, streaming information and their complete schedule.

Keys to Victory

Control the boards and limit Florida State’s 3-point shooting.

Florida State lives by the 3, which is evident in the 36.2 attempts it takes from beyond the arc per game. That leads the ACC and ranks second nationally. But the Seminoles miss a lot of those shots, making just 31.4 percent from deep, which is 281st in the country.

It is not just 3-pointers they are missing, either. Florida State shoots 44.2 percent from the field overall, which is second to last in the ACC and 307th nationally. Because of all those misses, the Seminoles rank 10th nationally in offensive rebounds.

North Carolina has to be stingy on the perimeter because it does not want those shots to start falling. If they do not, the Tar Heels must box out and secure defensive rebounds, denying Florida State second and third chances on multiple possessions.

What to Watch Out For

North Carolina getting at least 50 rebounds.

On average, North Carolina grabs 42 rebounds per game, which is tied for 17th nationally. The most the Tar Heels have tallied is 48 in their 99-51 win over East Carolina last week. Ironically, the Pirates were not a strong shooting team coming into that game, either.

I’m not saying North Carolina has to grab 50 rebounds in this game to win — although that certainly would not hurt. However, given Carolina’s improvement on the glass this season and its height advantage, it would not be surprising to see the Tar Heels set a new season high in rebounds.

Statistical leaders

Points

UNC: Caleb Wilson (19.6)

Florida State:Robert McCray V (13.5)

Rebounds

UNC: Caleb Wilson (10.8)

Florida State: Alex Steen (6.7)

Assists

UNC:Kyan Evans (3.9)

Florida State: Robert McCray V (7.1)

What you need to know

WHAT? North Carolina Tar Heels (12-1) vs. Florida State Buckeyes (7-6)

WHEN? Tuesday, December 30 at 7 p.m. ET

WHERE? Dean Smith Center, Chapel Hill

TV? ESPN2 

RADIO? SiriusXM (Channel 193)

LINE? UNC -16.5

LAST MEETING? UNC 96, Ohio State 85 on Feb. 24, 2025 in Talahassee, Fla.

ALL-TIME SERIES: UNC leads, 57-16

PREDICTION? UNC 85, Florida State 66

UNC basketball 2025-26 schedule

October 4: Blue-White Scrimmage (White 55, Blue 50)

Oct. 24: at BYU (preseason, L 78-76)

Oct. 29: vs. Winston-Salem State (preseason, W 95-53)

Nov. 3: vs. Central Arkansas (W, 94-54)

Nov. 7: vs. Kansas (W, 87-74)

Nov. 11: vs. Radford (W, 89-74)

Nov. 14: vs. NC Central (W, 97-53)

Nov. 18: vs. Navy (W, 73-61)

Nov. 25: vs. St. Bonaventure in Fort Myers (Fla.) Tip-Off (W, 85-70)

Nov. 27: vs. Michigan State in Fort Myers (Fla.) Tip-Off (L, 74-58)

December 2: at Kentucky (W, 67-64)

Dec. 7: vs. Georgetown (W, 81-61)

Dec. 13: vs. USC Upstate (W, 80-62)

Dec. 16: vs. ETSU (W, 77-58)

Dec. 20: vs. Ohio State in CBS Sports Classic (W, 71-70)

Dec. 22: vs. East Carolina (8 p.m.) (W, 99-51)

Dec. 30: vs. Florida State (2:15 p.m.)

January 3, 2026: at SMU (2:15 p.m.)

Jan. 10, 2026: vs. Wake Forest (6 p.m.)

Jan. 14, 2026: at Stanford (9 p.m.)

Jan. 17, 2026: at California (4 p.m.)

Jan. 21, 2026: vs. Notre Dame (7 p.m.)

Jan. 24, 2026: at Virginia (TBA)

Jan. 31, 2026: at Georgia Tech (2 p.m.)

Feb. 2, 2026: vs. Syracuse (7 p.m.)

Feb. 7, 2026: vs. Duke (6:30 p.m.)

Feb. 10, 2026: at Miami (FL) (7 p.m.)

Feb. 14, 2026: vs. Pitt (2 p.m.)

Feb. 17, 2026: at NC State (7 p.m.)

Feb. 21, 2026: at Syracuse (1 p.m.)

Feb. 23, 2026: vs. Louisville (7 p.m.)

Feb. 28, 2026: vs. Virginia Tech (TBA)

March 3, 2026: vs. Clemson (7 p.m.)

March 7, 2026: at Duke (6:30 p.m.)

March 10-14, 2026: ACC Tournament in Spectrum Center (Charlotte, N.C.)

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This article originally appeared on Tar Heels Wire: UNC Basketball vs. Florida State: Game preview, info, prediction, more