Vikings offense scouting report: Expect volatility from JJ McCarthy

The 2025 season has not gone to plan for the Minnesota Vikings, especially on offense, where second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy has been hurt at times and working through the typical growing pains of a young signal-caller when he has been healthy.

The Green Bay Packers will face McCarthy for the first time on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

McCarthy was viewed as the only real question mark on an otherwise proven offense, but the entire unit has suffered due to his injuries and below par performances.

Entering Week 12, the Vikings rank 22nd in the NFL in points per game, 27th in yards per game, 23rd in percentage of drives ending with a score, 27th in expected points added (EPA) per game and 28th in offensive success rate. They are also giving the ball away at a high clip, with only three teams ending a higher percentage of their drives with a turnover.

Unlike some of the opponents Green Bay has faced recently, Minnesota has not been very effective in extending drives, ranking 30th in plays per drive and 32nd in average time elapsed per drive.

Opponents grinding down the clock has been a bit of an issue for the Packers of late, giving their offense reduced opportunities to put up points, but it does not appear that will be as much of an issue on Sunday.

Part of that is the Vikings’ lack of want to run the ball, despite being reasonably successful when they do. Minnesota ranks 9th in the league in yards per carry, but 30th in rush attempts per game.

The result is that they are not often setting themselves up for success on later downs, ranking 31st in 3rd down conversion rate and dead last in EPA per play on late downs.

It was posited that McCarthy simply needed to play as well as Sam Darnold did last year for the Vikings to once again be a top offense, but as it turns out, the gap between the two is bigger than many people realized, at least at this stage of their respective careers.

After missing his entire rookie year with injury, as well as part of this season, McCarthy very much looks like the inexperienced quarterback he is at the moment.

Among 41 qualified QBs, he ranks 37th in yards per attempt and adjusted completion percentage and is dead last in NFL passer rating at just 61.7.

Stylistically, McCarthy has not been shy to let the ball rip downfield, but that has come with extreme volatility. He is third in the league in big time throw rate but also has the highest turnover-worthy play rate in the NFL.

McCarthy is throwing deep at the fourth highest rate compared to his fellow quarterbacks, but ranks 33rd in PFF grade when doing so. He also ranks second in intermediate throw rate, but only 26th in PFF grade.

It makes sense the Vikings are trying to attack defenses deeper downfield given their talented pass catching group, headlined by perennial All-Pro Justin Jefferson.

But given the mixed (at best) results, it is a bit surprising head coach Kevin O’Connell, widely viewed as one of the brightest offensive minds in the league, and something of a quarterback whisperer, has not changed tact and become more conservative.

On the other hand, McCarthy has not found much success in the ‘safer’ parts of the field either. He ranks dead last in short pass rate, as well as PFF grade when he does throw there. Similarly, he ranks 24th in rate of throws behind the line of scrimmage, and 29th in PFF grade.

The young quarterback is not in a bad ecosystem in terms of protection. Minnesota took a risk by trying to microwave an offensive line rebuild, adding veterans who have played at a high level in the league but have also been prone to injuries.

Predictably, injuries hit, but they have still performed reasonably well, ranking 10th as a unit in PFFs pass block rankings, and 16th as run blockers. The Vikings look set to finally have their ideal starting five available on Sunday, but the issue has been McCarthy’s pocket management.

He seems to lack feel and composure, and the stats bear that out, as he ranks 35th in time to throw, 33rd in pressure-to-sack rate, and is responsible for his own pressure at the 10th highest rate in the league.

Holding on to the ball has arguably been better for McCarthy than getting it out quickly, with him ranking 39th in PFF grade when throwing in less than 2.5 seconds compared to 27th when waiting for more than 2.5 seconds. But again, this is a more risky, volatile way to play.

In terms of what the Packers should expect on Sunday, McCarthy is likely to hit some big plays downfield; he has the arm for it. But he will also put the ball up for grabs, and Green Bay needs to do a better job of taking advantage of that than they did versus Jameis Winston last week.

McCarthy has shown an ability to hit a hot streak late in games if the Vikings are still hanging around, so not allowing him to be in that situation, and punishing him for mistakes earlier in the game will be key.

This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Vikings offense scouting report: Expect volatility from JJ McCarthy