Week 11 college football lines and picks

Yes, I’m back at it for another week. A pair of painful late bad beats in the Louisville and Georgia games turned a winning week into a losing one. But I’m playing out the string at this point despite the filth that some of the brave keyboard warriors like to spit at me around here.

As usual, I’m using the lines over at the FanDuel Sportsbook.

(Disclaimer: these are just my opinions. Please do your own analysis and pick accordingly. I am not telling you what to do with your money. Be responsible. Have a gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. T&C apply; lines subject to change.)

And now, on with this week’s picks…

Syracuse at MIAMI -28.5

The Cuse might be the worst team in the ACC right now, or at least they’ve been playing like it lately. They’re on a five-game losing streak of getting slapped by everybody, including UNC last week, and QB Joseph Filardi had a 4/18 for 39 yard passing day last week against the Tar Heels. It could be Filardi, Rickie Collins (who started during the prior 4 losses, or freshman Luke Carney. Either way, I’m not worried much about any of them. Miami probably starts slowly like they have been in recent weeks but pours it on by the end to clear this mark.

UTSA at USF -13.5

It’s hard to make heads or tails with UT-San Antonio from week to week. They’ve been blown off the field by North Texas, eked out a win over Colorado State, blown out Tulane, and lost to Temple. I do know that South Florida has played terrific football this season outside of Miami and the end of the Memphis game, and they’ve been excellent at home. That continues on Saturday with a bye week to prepare.

Florida State at Clemson; OVER 56.5

Clemson’s defense has been a mess, and particularly at home, where Syracuse, SMU, and Duke have all put up at least 30 this year. But Clemson has shown that they can still score, as they put up 45 on the Blue Devils last week. I think this is a game that comes down to the last possession, but I don’t think points will be a problem.

California at LOUISVILLE -20.5

The Bears offered a spark of good play this season when they started off 4-1, but ACC losses in 3 of their last 4 have made them a bit of a mirage. The Cardinals have proven they’re a good team, the game is at home, and they have plenty to play for after getting relatively shortchanged by the selection committee this week.

Northwestern at USC -14.5

The Trojans have simply been a different team at home than they have away from Los Angeles this season. They controlled Michigan in a three-score win, and I think they do at least that against the Wildcats on Saturday.

FLORIDA -3.5 at Kentucky

Florida played inspired football last week in a loss to Georgia that potentially could have gone the other way if what appeared to have been a late catch by the Gators had been ruled a catch. They have the talent edge. Kentucky has won just two SEC home games since November 2021. Yes, that stat is correct. Florida gets it done here.

Nebraska at UCLA -1.5

Dylan Raiola is out for the season, so on the road at a not-as-bad-as-we-thought UCLA team, I’ll go with the Bruins here.

Washington at Wisconsin; UNDER 44.5

Wisconsin has last six straight games. They haven’t scored more than 14 points in any of those games. They’ve scored 7 points over their last three games. This one is easy….

WASHINGTON -11.5 at Wisconsin

…..and that’s why I’m going with the Huskies as well against the number. Washington will get some – as the Badgers have allowed an average of 30.2 ppg over that losing streak.

Georgia at MISSISSIPPI STATE +9.5

Georgia has been, well, average away from home this year. They’ve escaped by the skin of their teeth against Tennessee on a missed field goal, won a rock fight with Auburn with some very sketch officiating, and won a game they very easily could have lost against a coachless Florida team. State has been scrappy at home this year, beating Arizona State and taking Tennessee and Texas into overtime. This has major trap game feel, with Texas on deck next week for Georgia.

Stanford at NORTH CAROLINA -7.5

UNC is actually playing…..decent football? They gagged one away against Cal on the West Coast, but took Virginia to overtime and came inches from a win on a two-point try. And last week they shut down Syracuse (not tough to do) for a 17-point road win. Their defense is playing well lately, and that’ll carry them to a double-digit win at home.