Wild Things — Walk Prop Cheat Sheet

Wild Things — Walk Prop Cheat Sheet originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

As betting becomes legalized nationwide and increasingly ubiquitous, we've witnessed an ever-growing interest in player props. When I polled the audience for what granular data they'd like to see or had trouble scraping, pitcher props were easily the most popular response.

So I place every day's probable starters' 2025 walk and ball rates next to their opponent, plus where that offense ranks in taking free passes this season. This gives us an instant glimpse at the entire board and a solid reference point for our daily parlay.

Today's SP Command Metrics -- (League Average 8.5% BB, 36.1% Ball)

• LAA Jack Kochanowicz — 86.0 IP; 10.6% BB, 37.8% Ball vs. TOR 8.9% BB Rk 11
• TEX Jack Leiter — 71.1 IP; 10.5% BB, 37.7% Ball vs. SD 8.6% BB Rk 16
• BOS Walker Buehler — 67.0 IP; 10.4% BB, 38.2% Ball vs. WSH 7.8% BB Rk 25
• NYM Frankie Montas — 9.0 IP; 10.0% BB, 36.1% Ball vs. NYY 10.4% BB Rk 1
• CLE Logan Allen — 78.0 IP; 9.9% BB, 39.4% Ball vs. DET 8.4% BB Rk 19
• WSH Mitchell Parker — 91.1 IP; 9.2% BB, 34.6% Ball vs. BOS 8.6% BB Rk 15
• TB Taj Bradley — 92.0 IP; 9.2% BB, 37.2% Ball vs. MIN 7.8% BB Rk 24
• CHW Jonathan Cannon — 53.0 IP; 9.1% BB, 38.1% Ball vs. COL 7.1% BB Rk 29
• HOU Framber Valdez — 109.0 IP; 8.9% BB, 35.6% Ball vs. LAD 9.6% BB Rk 2
• NYY Carlos Rodon — 106.2 IP; 8.7% BB, 37.6% Ball vs. NYM 9.1% BB Rk 7
• ATL Aaron Bummer — 34.2 IP; 8.3% BB, 35.1% Ball vs. BAL 7.6% BB Rk 27
• SD Stephen Kolek — 62.2 IP; 8.0% BB, 37.3% Ball vs. TEX 7.9% BB Rk 23
• SEA Luis Castillo — 96.1 IP; 7.9% BB, 35.4% Ball vs. PIT 8.7% BB Rk 14
• ARI Ryne Nelson — 67.1 IP; 7.8% BB, 36.0% Ball vs. KC 6.7% BB Rk 30
• MIL Chad Patrick — 89.2 IP; 7.6% BB, 35.6% Ball vs. MIA 8.0% BB Rk 22
• ATH Luis Severino — 104.1 IP; 7.4% BB, 36.6% Ball vs. SF 9.5% BB Rk 3
• MIA Cal Quantrill — 73.0 IP; 7.1% BB, 38.1% Ball vs. MIL 9.2% BB Rk 5
• COL German Marquez — 83.1 IP; 7.0% BB, 36.7% Ball vs. CHW 8.8% BB Rk 12
• PIT Mike Burrows — 34.2 IP; 6.8% BB, 36.9% Ball vs. SEA 8.8% BB Rk 13
• KC Michael Wacha — 97.0 IP; 6.4% BB, 34.5% Ball vs. ARI 9.1% BB Rk 6
• LAD Shohei Ohtani — 4.0 IP; 6.3% BB, 34.2% Ball vs. HOU 7.7% BB Rk 26
• BAL Dean Kremer — 97.0 IP; 6.1% BB, 33.8% Ball vs. ATL 9.2% BB Rk 4
• PHI Ranger Suarez — 72.0 IP; 6.0% BB, 34.1% Ball vs. CIN 8.9% BB Rk 10
• TOR Max Scherzer — 13.0 IP; 5.9% BB, 35.0% Ball vs. LAA 7.6% BB Rk 28
• DET Casey Mize — 78.2 IP; 5.8% BB, 33.8% Ball vs. CLE 8.5% BB Rk 18
• SF Logan Webb — 113.2 IP; 5.2% BB, 33.5% Ball vs. ATH 8.5% BB Rk 17
• CIN Nick Lodolo — 94.2 IP; 5.0% BB, 34.9% Ball vs. PHI 9.1% BB Rk 8
• STL Matthew Liberatore — 92.1 IP; 4.5% BB, 33.6% Ball vs. CHC 9.0% BB Rk 9

LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:

Methodology's relatively simple here — target pitchers with struggles finding the zone consistently (high walk and ball rates), in matchups versus generally patient lineups. Also, make sure the pitcher in question projects for a full workload... if you're going +6 IP, it's a lot easier to expect multiple walks. Looking at you, Rocco Baldelli...

Couple of wild things on the bump today against my two favorite teams to hunt for walks against, the Yanks and Jays — no need to get overly cute today. 

📝Today's Action -- THREE-LEG (+130) OVER 1.5 WALK PROP

•  Jack Kochanowicz, LAA + Frankie Montas, NYM

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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 5, 2025, where it first appeared.