College Football Playoffs First Round Preview

FRIDAY

(#9)Alabama at (#8)Oklahoma
8 p.m., ABC/ESPN

This is shaping up as a low-scoring affair, with both offenses on the decline as defenses figured out how to slow them down with each passing week. However, it should be the most electric atmosphere of the first round with a frenzied Sooner fanbase ecstatic to be back among the playoff field after several seasons well below expectations.

This is also a rematch from just over a month ago, when Oklahoma prevailed 23-21 in Tuscaloosa. The Sooners were aided by three Alabama turnovers that resulted in 17 points, including a pick-six to give them an early 10-0 lead. Will it be enough for the Tide if they are more careful with the ball this time? Possibly not, considering their run game has become almost non-existent in the second half of the season. Defenses have been putting heavy pressure on Ty Simpson to slow down their one-dimensional attack.

Oklahoma has had similar problems on offense, typically relying on explosive plays to make up for an inconsistent offense that struggles to complete drives. This game seems destined to be a defensive slugfest that comes down to which team can make a big play or two at the most opportune times.
Prediction: Oklahoma-20, Alabama-16

SATURDAY

(#10)Miami at (#7)Texas A&M
Noon, ABC/ESPN

This is the most fascinating match-up of the first round, and it seems a bit of a disservice to all those within Kyle Field to play it at noon. Alas, this should be an even match-up that could go in a number of directions.

Miami finished on a strong note after dropping two of three earlier in the year – games they should have been able to win against Louisville and SMU. Texas A&M’s defensive woes caught up with them late in the season, needing the largest comeback in program history to get past a 4-8 South Carolina team before things unraveled with a 27-17 loss against Texas to close out the regular season.

There’s still reason why the Aggies were unbeaten until Black Friday. They can win in a variety of ways, whether it’s through the aerial attack, explosive plays in the run game, or clock-eating drives. They excel at finding ways to exploit the biggest weaknesses in the defense, and have the talent to light up the scoreboard in any way needed.

The key match-up will be Texas A&M’s offensive line vs. Miami’s defensive line. It’s a strength vs. strength featuring two of the best – possibly the best- units in the nation. It will dictate just how much the Aggies can accomplish on offense, and likely the outcome of the game.
Prediction: Miami-28, Texas A&M-27

(#11)Tulane at (#6)Ole Miss
3:30 p.m., TNT

This is the second of two rematches in the first round. But unlike Oklahoma-Alabama, this one wasn’t anywhere near competitive in round one as Ole Miss took apart Tulane 45-10 back in week four.

Things have changed quite a bit for both programs since that game as they undergo changes at the top. Jon Summerall is still with the Green Wave, but will be Florida’s head coach moving forward. I’m sure you’re aware of the messy departure of Lane Kiffin for LSU, moving on immediately after the regular season.

It will be interesting to see how these teams respond, especially for Ole Miss. They may be depleted by all the late season drama, but it seems more likely they will rally around each other and play inspired football. Even with a lackluster performance from the Rebels, Tulane may have too much ground to cover to make this competitive in round two.
Prediction: Ole Miss-38, Tulane-17

(#12)James Madison at (#5)Oregon
7:30 p.m., TNT

I can offer two reasons for hope that this will be a competitive game, despite Oregon being a 21.5-point favorite. James Madison runs the ball very well, and Oregon’s biggest weakness is stopping the run. Additionally, the Ducks are quite banged up and may be still missing key personnel on Saturday.

Oregon wasn’t slowed down despite having many key players on the sideline, ending the season with impressive victories over USC and Washington. The Ducks could be dangerous in the playoffs, depending who is ready to get back on the field.

James Madison has a chance to make this interesting by keeping Dante Moore and company on the sidelines with clock-eating drives that end in points. But overall, the talent differential could be too much to make it last. There’s always the Bears-Packers game if this one goes sideways early.
Prediction: Oregon-38, James Madison-20