How much is Christian Watson worth? | Packers mailbag

GREEN BAY − Green Bay Press-Gazette and PackersNews columnist Pete Dougherty responds to reader questions on the hot topics of the Green Bay Packers’ offseason.

The following is an excerpt from this week’s story. For the full story, click here.

What is Christian Watson worth? 

Quinoa Bean: Christian Watson has No. 1 receiver written all over him. He's got the size and speed, he makes big plays (career 17.0 yards per catch!), and his hands have steadily improved since he's been a Packer. My impression is that his route-running has improved as well − this past year he was catching all sorts of out routes and comebacks on the sideline, with lots of nice hands catches away from his body.  

So that's all good, and he seems like a lock for a second contract. But it's also been injury after injury with him, especially to his right leg, and he has yet to play a full season; his career season highs are 41 catches and 620 yards. If you're the Packers, what kind of money are you giving him this offseason, and how much of it is guaranteed against injury? 

Pete Dougherty: You’ve pretty much summed up the factors the Packers have to think about. 

They definitely have to factor injuries, but the always-rising contract market also plays into it regardless of the injuries. They have to decide how far they’re willing to go considering the injury risk. If Watson stays healthy and has a big year, and they haven’t extended him, then they either have to franchise him, pay even bigger money or let a talented player walk. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba just signed an extension with Seattle that set the receiver market at $41.2M a year. Watson obviously is not in for that kind of deal. Smith-Njigba is a rising star and was first-team All-Pro last season. 

There are 10 receivers in the $30M or more category, and I’m not sure Watson quite makes into that group, either. 

But Indianapolis recently re-signed Alec Pierce for $28.5M a year, and I have to think Watson can get a deal like that. Pierce has been similar to Watson as a player but healthier. He’s never had more than 47 receptions in a season but led the league in yards per catch the past two years (22.3, 21.1). Watson’s career high in receptions is 41 as a rookie, and he has a healthy 17.5-yard average per catch in his career. 

Watson has had his well-known injuries issues but, as you noted, he showed great improvement as an overall receiver last season, running and catching more possession-type routes along with the big plays. He’s better than Pierce that way – Pierce is mostly a deep-ball threat. But take Watson’s injury history into account, and a contract similar to Pierce’s seems right to me if I’m the Packers. 

As far as guarantees against injury, they could try to include big roster bonuses as a hedge. Teams are starting to increase those. New England, for instance, just signed offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker to a contract that will pay him $250,000 for each game he plays ($4.25M if he plays all 17 regular-season games). In the past, roster bonuses were $250K or $500K for the season. 

Whether, or at least the degree to which, Watson would agree to something like that is another matter. He has leverage, too, if he’s willing to take on the injury risk and let the season play out. 

But I’m thinking the Pierce contract is the best comp for Watson. 

Eric Lindquist: In theory, no first-round pick means less chance of getting a difference-maker and more picks means more chances to strike gold. What do you think is more likely in the early rounds − that the Packers trade up to improve their chances of landing a star or trade down to get more swings? 

Dougherty: I have to think the better odds are for trading down for more swings. 

The Packers have so many needs (immediate and a year or two down the road), and making this class smaller by trading an extra pick to move just strikes me as highly unlikely. I’d think they’d have to just absolutely love a player to do something like that. 

One question I’m wondering is what Brian Gutekunst would do in this scenario, if the possibility came up: trading down from the second round to the third, and thus having three third-round picks rather one second and one third. 

Again, it takes two to tango, not sure how likely he could find someone to make such a deal. I know Jacksonville has two later third-round picks, for instance. But if Gutekunst could make that kind of deal, I wonder if he’d find that more valuable, or taking a player at No. 52 more valuable. 

There’s probably not a pat answer to that. Surely depends on the quality of any given draft. Some drafts have more third-round talent than others. 

This article originally appeared on Packers News: How much is Christian Watson worth? | Green Bay Packers mailbag