Popular analytics guru projects Michigan State football win total for 2025 season

One of the most knowledgeable college football analytics guys on social media has released his preseason win total projections, and it's right about on par with many others for the Spartans.

Parker Fleming -- better known by the handle of @statsowar on social media platform X -- published his preseason average wins total for the upcoming season on Monday. And for Michigan State, the number is right above the betting win total found at most sportsbooks.

Fleming ran his simulation model 10,000 times and it produced an average win total for the Spartans of 5.7 -- which is essentially right on the cut line to reach bowl eligibility. This should come as no surprise, as Michigan State's win total over/under betting line is 5.5 -- so essentially the same number as Fleming's output.

Among Big Ten teams, the Spartans came in at No. 13 in highest average number of wins in Fleming's model. That is also right on par with where the Big Ten media picked the Spartans to finish in the annual preseason poll released by Cleveland.com on Monday.

Check out Fleming's complete average win total projections in the graphic below:

🏈PRESEASON AVERAGE WIN TOTALS v1🏈

Here are the results of 10,000 sims of the college football regular season, based on my preseason priors.

Everyone's got to start somewhere, here's where I have all 136 teams starting this fall. pic.twitter.com/DTiB3nGI1X— parker fleming (@statsowar) July 21, 2025

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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: Popular analytics guru projects MSU football win total for 2025 season