Why The NBA's Las Vegas And Seattle Expansion Teams Are Likely To Struggle Early

The Golden State Valkyries just finished their inaugural season in the WNBA. They'll be a model for expansion teams moving forward.

In their debut campaign, the Valkyries finished above .500 at 23-21 and made the playoffs. They're the first WNBA expansion team in history to make the playoffs in their first year of existence, according to ESPN's Kendra Andrews.

The NBA’s forthcoming expansion teams may struggle to replicate that instant success.

According to ESPN's Shams Charania, the NBA plans to hold a vote at its board of governors meeting next week "to explore adding expansion teams exclusively in Las Vegas and Seattle." The two teams would be expected to debut in the 2028-29 season.

If past precedent is any indication, those teams should brace themselves for a rocky start once they do begin play.

How Have Past NBA Expansion Teams Fared?

Over the past four decades, the NBA has added seven expansion teams. The Charlotte Bobcats were the most recent to join the league ahead of the 2004-25 season.

During their first year of existence, none of those seven expansion teams finished better than 22-60. Only one of them (the Miami Heat) made the playoffs within their first four seasons, although four others—the Charlotte Hornets, Orlando Magic, Toronto Raptors and Bobcats—each made it in their fifth year.

The NBA's terms for expansion teams deserve at least some of the blame for that.

When the Bobcats came into existence roughly two decades ago, the league held an expansion draft for them two days before the 2004 NBA draft. Each existing team was allowed to protect up to eight players from being selected, although every team had to leave at least one player exposed.

Players could only be protected if they were under contract or set to become a restricted free agent that offseason. The Bobcats were allowed to select only one player from each team, and any impending restricted free agent whom they chose immediately became an unrestricted free agent instead.

According to ESPN's Tim Bontemps and Bobby Marks, the Bobcats wound up selecting 19 players in their expansion draft, nine of whom were restricted free agents. Tamar Slay was the only one of those nine who re-signed with the Bobcats that offseason.

That may be because of the rules governing expansion teams early in their life cycle.

What Rules Apply To NBA Expansion Teams?

During their first year of existence, the Bobcats had a salary cap equal to 66% of the NBA's actual salary cap that season. In their second year of existence, that moved up to 75%. After that, they had the same salary cap as every other team.

The league's latest collective bargaining agreement says any expansion teams moving forward will have a salary cap equal to 66⅔% of the NBA's actual salary cap in their first year of existence and a salary cap equal to 80% of the actual salary cap in their second year. In both seasons, those teams will be required to reach the salary floor (90% of their respective salary caps) by the first day of the regular season, just like every other team.

We're still a few years away from having concrete estimates for the NBA's 2028-29 salary cap, but let's use RealGM's projections for now ($183.0 million) to contextualize how restrictive those salary caps are for expansion teams.

In their first year of existence, the Las Vegas and Seattle teams would have a salary cap of roughly $122.0 million and a salary floor of $109.8 million. In their second season, they would have a salary cap of $128.1 million and a salary floor of $115.3 million.

If the NBA's salary cap does land at roughly $183 million in 2028-29, a max contract starting at 25% of the cap would begin at $45.7 million, a max contract starting at 30% of the cap would begin at $54.9 million, and a max contract starting at 35% of the cap would begin at just over $64 million. Two max deals starting at 35% of the cap would gobble up the expansion teams' entire salary cap.

Granted, they might not have the opportunity to select many (if any) max players in the expansion draft. Any max players whom their respective teams leave unprotected will likely come with major medical and/or contractual red flags. Still, it may be tough for either expansion team to roster more than one max player in the first year or two of their existence due to those salary-cap restrictions.

The NBA also needs to figure out how to fit the two new expansion teams into the 2028 draft. The Bobcats received the No. 4 overall pick in 2004, while the other six teams picked no higher than sixth. All seven were prohibited from landing the No. 1 overall pick in their first year of existence, too.

That was a particularly brutal twist of fate for the Raptors, who originally won the lottery in 1996. However, the NBA prohibited them from landing the No. 1 overall pick in 1996, 1997 and 1998 as part of their expansion agreement. The Philadelphia 76ers wound up getting that pick instead, which they used to select Georgetown guard Allen Iverson.

The latest CBA doesn’t say which draft restrictions (if any) expansion teams would be subject to. Depending on which anti-tanking measures get implemented between now and then, the NBA will need to balance how to give those expansion teams a realistic chance at a high draft pick if they struggle as much as past expansion teams have early on.

Between not being able to land the No. 1 overall pick right away and having a smaller-than-usual salary cap, the deck will be stacked against the expansion teams in Seattle and Las Vegas unless the NBA has a change of heart in the next few years. The ownership groups of those teams should at least take solace in seeing the Heat and Raptors each win at least one championship within their first 25 years, though.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

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