College football betting, odds, predictions: 3 early Week 5 bets to make right now

Week 5 of the college football season is officially here, and the board is already starting to take shape. While most eyes are glued to the marquee matchups, there’s real value to be found early in the week before the lines adjust. Digging deeper into box scores, advanced metrics, and situational spots, three plays stand out as strong betting opportunities. Let’s get into it.

Here are three early Week 5 college football wagers I like:

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Memphis Tigers (-13.5, 62.5) at Florida Atlantic Owls

Fresh off an emotional win against Arkansas, this feels like the classic “trap game” for Memphis. The narrative would say they sleepwalk against a weak Florida Atlantic squad and sneak away with an ugly win. I’m not buying it.

Yes, Memphis’ offense has looked inconsistent at times — QB Brendon Lewis went just 15-of-30 for 199 passing yards, one touchdown and a pick against Arkansas. But metrics tell a different story: this offense ranks 21st in points per quality drive, a mark that points to sustained success when they get rolling. Florida Atlantic, meanwhile, is on the other end of the spectrum, allowing quality drives 42% of the time. That’s a glaring mismatch.

FAU’s offense doesn’t inspire confidence either, ranking 119th in adjusted points per drive. Combine that with the Tigers' up-tempo style creating more possessions, and this looks like a one-sided track meet. Memphis has more than enough firepower to clear the number.

Play: Tigers -13.5

App State Mountaineers at Boise State Broncos (-17.5, 60.5)

If betting had a golden rule, it might be “buy low, sell high.” This is the perfect opportunity to do just that. Boise State is coming off a gaudy win over Air Force, putting up nearly 600 yards and 49 points. But look closer: most of those big plays came off blown coverages rather than elite offensive execution. QB Maddux Madsen threw just 22 passes, didn’t run once and leaned heavily on the ground game.

Air Force, despite being outmatched athletically, still posted 500 yards, ran for five yards per carry, and threw for over 12 yards per attempt. That doesn’t exactly scream “dominant Boise State defense.”

App State, meanwhile, has been disappointing so far, capped by a 16-point loss to Southern Miss. However, this is still a proud program with a history of competing as a mid-major power. With extra time to prepare, this feels like the right time to buy in at a generous number.

Play: App State +17.5

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-3.5, 49.5) at UTEP Miners

If you like fireworks, this probably isn’t the game for you. Louisiana Tech plays slow, deliberate football, ranking 97th in punts per offensive score and leaning heavily on the ground game (ninth nationally in run-play percentage). The Bulldogs' offense isn’t explosive, but their defense has been quietly impressive, ranking 14th in adjusted points per drive allowed.

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On the other side, UTEP just gave up over 250 rushing yards to Louisiana Monroe. But that might actually help us here, as facing back-to-back run-heavy offenses allows for adjustments. Expect both teams to lean into the trenches, grind the clock and play field-position football.

All signs point to a grind-it-out game with very few explosive plays.

Play: Under 49.5

Week 4 betting recap

Nevada-Western Kentucky: Our early article play on Western Kentucky -10.5 looked dicey through three quarters with Nevada hanging around, but the Hilltoppers dominated the fourth. Back-to-back long touchdown drives plus a late onside kick return TD gave us the cover.

West Virginia-Kansas: Brutal result. We grabbed West Virginia +11.5 and it was never competitive. Kansas rolled 41-10, completely stifling the Mountaineers’ offense.

Syracuse-Clemson: Another early article play that fell short. Clemson (-17.5) couldn’t overcome sloppy play and penalties. Syracuse controlled the line of scrimmage early and the Tigers were never a threat.

Temple-Georgia Tech: The over 52.5 was never in doubt here. Georgia Tech jumped out to a 21-0 first-quarter lead and Temple’s offense actually came alive with over 300 yards. Points came easy, and this one cashed comfortably.

Purdue-Notre Dame: Wrong side again. The under 53 got blown up thanks to Purdue’s leaky defense. Notre Dame rolled to 56 points on their own in a game where neither defense slowed down much of anything.

Troy-Buffalo: The team total over 16.5 felt dead through three quarters, but Troy caught fire in the fourth with 21 points to save us. A sweat, but it counts.

Overall: 3-3 (1-2 from early article plays)

Final thoughts

Week 5 is a tricky spot on the calendar — teams are settling into their identities, market narratives are forming, and oddsmakers are getting sharper. But that also means there’s opportunity if you dig past the surface. 

Memphis has the pace and matchup to roll against FAU, App State fits the classic buy-low/sell-high mold, and Louisiana Tech-UTEP looks like an old-fashioned rock fight. Early lines don’t last forever, so if you like the value, don’t wait until Saturday.