John Hollinger expects Rockets to structure Fred VanVleet’s deal with descending salaries
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The state of Fred VanVleet’s $44.9-million team option for the 2025-26 NBA season remains unclear, though the Houston Rocketsare expected to retain him, no matter what.
But should the Rockets decline the team option to negotiate a deal with additional years, Houston’s recent negotiations with veteran center Steven Adams could offer a blueprint.
Adams’ new contract is descending in annual value, starting at $14.0 million in 2025-26 before declining to $13.0 million in 2026-27, and $11.9 million in 2027-28.
That’s a template that John Hollinger, a senior NBA writer for The Athletic and formerly a front office executive in the league, expects the Rockets to potentially use again with VanVleet.
The Rockets already committed three years and $39 million to Steven Adams and presumably will re-sign Fred VanVleet to a more cap-friendly, long-term deal after they decline his team option. The fact that they front-loaded Adams’ deal suggests to me they will do the same with VanVleet’s... to ease the pain of future seasons, when likely contract extensions for Tari Eason and Amen Thompson kick in.
In short, it’s the 2027-28 season payroll that is of concern for the Rockets. That’s when Thompson will almost certainly be on the first year of a maximum-salaried contract, and other young players such as Alperen Sengun, Eason, and Jabari Smith Jr. will all be on their second NBA contracts, as well. In each case, those will inherently be much more expensive than a rookie-scale deal.
The NBA’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) has strict penalties for teams that go well beyond the luxury tax threshold in consecutive seasons. Unlike previous iterations of the CBA, these penalties have consequences related to both finances and roster building. So, Houston will have payroll considerations to navigate in future seasons, especially if newly acquired star Kevin Durant ultimately agrees to a two-year contract extension (the second year would be 2027-28).
In an ideal world, the Rockets might sign VanVleet to a two-year deal, in hopes that Reed Sheppard could take the full-time reins at point guard in 2027-28 — the last year of his rookie-scale contract. But if VanVleet is set on a deal of three years in length, Hollinger is probably correct in his assessment that the Rockets will try and put as low a number as possible on that third and final year.
As with Adams, that descending structure would make it easier for the Rockets to handle on their long-term salary books. Furthermore, it might make VanVleet and Adams more tradable around the league in two years, should Houston need to get off those deals entirely by the 2027-28 season.
The deadline for a decision on VanVleet’s team option is June 29, so the Rockets will have until Sunday to figure out the next move.
This article originally appeared on Rockets Wire: Why Rockets could structure Fred VanVleet’s deal to descend in value
