Purdue Basketball: Michigan Preview – Stats, Analytics, Analysis

Michigan 2025-2026 Season

Overall Record: 24-1

Big 10 Record: 14-1

Previous 3 Games

2/14: W – 86 – 56 vs UCLA @ Home

2/11: W – 82 – 61 vs Ohio State @ Away

2/8: W – 110 – 69 vs Penn State @ Away

Michigan Personnel

Starters

Bench

Key Analytics

(Per KenPom.com – National Rank / Big 10 Rank in ())

KenPom Ranking – 1

Offense

Adjusted Efficiency: 126.6 (4) – Big 10 Only: 122.8 (2)

Adjusted Tempo: 72.2 (11) – Big 10 Only: 70.9 (1)

Average Possession Length: 15 (7) – Big 10 Only: 15.3 (1)

Effective Field Goal%: 58.9 (7) – Big 10 Only: 57.9 (1)

Offensive Rebound%: 36.6 (24) – Big 10 Only: 30.2 (8)

Three Point%: 35.4 (89) – Big 10 Only: 30.2 (3)

Two Point %: 63 (2) – Big 10 Only: 46.9 (1)

Defense

Adjusted Efficiency: 88 (1) – Big 10 Only: 99 (1)

Adjusted Tempo: 72.2 (11) – Big 10 Only: 70.9 (1)

Average Possession Length: 18 (295) – Big 10 Only: 18.7 (14)

Effective Field Goal%: 43.2 (2) – Big 10 Only: 46.2 (1)

Offensive Rebound%: 28.1 (70) – Big 10 Only: 23.1 (18)

Three Point%: 29.1 (7) – Big 10 Only: 30.2 (3)

Two Point %: 42.8 (2) – Big 10 Only: 46.9 (1)

Key Stat for Purdue

(Per KenPom.com – Big 10 Rank in ())

*Note: I’m only using Big 10 stats for this section because I think it better represents how both teams are currently playing.

Offense

Tempo

Purdue Offense: 65.1 (12)

Michigan Offense: 70.9 (1)

Thoughts:

Purdue has to control this game with their offense. It’s a simple proposition:

Michigan wants to push the pace at all times.

Purdue wants to slow the game down and work the clock.

If Michigan plays at its preferred pace, I’m not sure Purdue has enough scoring to win this game. The Wolverines want to play games in the 80+ range, where individual possessions aren’t valuable because they get up a bunch of shots.

Purdue has to take the air out of the ball and make each possession meaningful. If Michigan wants to play offense for 29 seconds and offense for 10, the Boilermakers should let them try. The first step of winning this game is dragging the Wolverines into the deep water of the second half and hoping the Mackey crowd, paired with some clutch shooting, can win the day for Purdue.

I don’t like Purdue’s chances in an up-tempo game, but I’m willing to entertain hope in a low-possession slug fest.

Defense

Two Point %

Purdue Defense: 55 (13)

Michigan Offense: 61.6 (1)

Thoughts:

The Wolverines have NBA size in the front court and have dominated teams in the lane. Purdue should take note; Michigan blows out bad teams because they score a bunch of points around the basket and aren’t held hostage by the vagaries of college jump shooting. They’re happy to play close with teams in the first half while amassing foul trouble on the opposing front line, then crush them in the second half.

There is a common text in the Hammer and Rails Group chat that goes like this:

“Hey guys, check it out, Michigan is in a battle with (insert mid Big 10 Team) at halftime.”

10 minutes later…

“My God, Michigan hit the gas, it’s all over.”

Northwestern hung around until the final 10 minutes last week before Michigan decided to stop playing with their food and finished the game on a 31-15 run, which happened to coincide with serious foul trouble for the Wildcat front court. Once the Wolverines get you in the bonus, their guards start driving the ball downhill and getting to the line. LJ Cason was the KenPom MVP of the Northwestern game because he hit 7-9 free throws, mostly down the stretch, by driving into the heart of the Wildcat defense.

The one chink in the Wolverine armor is their outside shooting. The thing is, it doesn’t come up much because they score so well around the basket. When they play close games, it’s usually because they lose the plot and start chucking three-pointers. They were 8/29 from deep against Northwestern, and the Wildcats were in the game late. That only happens because Northwestern held them to 22-40 shooting inside the arc and decided to look elsewhere for easy points. If the easy points are in the lane, Michigan will take them and cruise to victory.

Can Cluff, DJ, TKR, and Benter do enough to encourage Wolverines to try their luck from distance?

Can the Purdue guards stay in front and keep Michigan out of the lane?

The answer to those two questions will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game.

Brief Thoughts

I covered most of what I think is important above. Purdue’s first job is turning this game into the type of game they can win. Braden has to control the tempo, and the Boilermakers have to hit shots at the end of the clock. Michigan will encourage you to run with them.

DO NOT TAKE THE BAIT!

If this is a question of who has the best athletes in the open court, Michigan wins by double digits.

This has to be a game of “who can execute best in the half-court” for the Boilermakers to have a chance.

I break down Purdue’s chances to win like this:

A game in the 70’s: 50%

A game in the 80’s: 10%

A game in the 90’s: 0%

Slow the game down, make Michigan feel some game pressure against a good team on the road, and hope for the best.

Predictions

KenPom

Purdue: 76

Michigan: 78

Drew

Purdue: 78

Michigan: 76

Looking Into My Crystal Ball

I’m a total homer; always keep that in mind.

Purdue makes Michigan hate basketball in this game. Things have been easy for the Wolverines recently. They haven’t played a game within 10 points since their 75-72 win over Nebraska on January 27th. If nothing else, Purdue has significantly more experience in navigating close games because it can’t seem to avoid them unless Iowa shows up on the other side of the court.

The good news for the Boilermakers is that they have Braden Smith, and Michigan doesn’t (Despite Dusty May’s best efforts). The Purdue captain puts the Boilermakers on his back and drags them across the finish line with a fade-away jumper on the final possession over the outstretched fingertips of Yaxel Lendeborg.

Once again, this is called manifesting.

I could use your help.