UFC Houston odds: Best betting props, parlays and picks

UFC Houston goes down this weekend (Sat., Feb. 21, 2026). This is the first non-PLE and non-APEX event of the Paramount+ era. And there’s a couple of interesting fights going on here. As a whole, though, the card isn’t much to write home about.

The main event is Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez with both men hoping a win gets them closer to new, and inactive, champ Khamzat Chimaev.

The co-main focuses on the Welterweight division and is designed to provide a stoppage. Uros Medic has never seen a judges’ scorecard. He’s up against the ‘Hands of Steel’ Geoff Neal.

Rounding out the main card is Dan Ige vs. Melquizael Costa, Serghei Spivac vs. Ante Delija, Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell and Zachary Reese vs. Michel Pereira.

The featured “Prelims” fight is Chidi Njokuani vs. Carlos Leal (another fight with a great chance of a finish). The UFC Houston undercard also has Ramiz Brahimaj vs. Punahele Soriano and Yadier del Valle vs. Jordan Leavitt.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Houston Main Card Money Line Odds

Sean Strickland (+230) vs Anthony Hernandez (-285)

It’s been over a year since we saw Sean Strickland fight. In February 2025 he lost a unanimous decision to Dricus Du Plessis, as he unsuccessfully attempted to win back the belt Du Plessis took from him in January, 2024. Between DDP losses, he scored a prototypical Strickland victory over Paulo Costa (by split decision). Strickland is now 16-7 in UFC (29-7 overall) and three years removed from his stunning upset of Israel Adesanya to win the UFC Middleweight title.

Hernandez has looked unstoppable lately. Since losing to Kevin Holland back in 2020 he’s won eight straight fights, mostly in dominating fashion. In August he big brothered Roman Dolidze before finishing him with a schoolyard choke (see it here). Before that he took a comfortable decision over the wily Brendan Allen. And before that he beat the snot out of Michel Pereira for four and a half rounds.

Both these fighters are known for forward movement and forcing their opponents to back up. Hernandez, though, has a lot more malicious intent when he goes forwards. Strickland prods and pokes with his front kick and looks to exhaust his opponents. Hernandez tries to close distance, trap them on the fence and then batter them.

The big question for me is whether Hernandez will get Strickland down. Hernandez does incredible damage from ground and pound and he can break opponents on the ground in quick fashion.

Strickland has a very good 76 percent takedown defense on paper. Though, he hasn’t fought many guys who have made a concerted effort to take him down over and over again. Du Plessis tried that, in their first fight, and he succeeded six times on elevan attempts. That means Strickland’s takedown defense was 46 percent in that fight. Du Plessis also landed one of two takedown attempts in their second fight.

The only other Middleweight to attempt more than one takedown on Strickland was Jack Hermansson, who struck out on eight attempts.

Hernandez completes 6.46 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 48 percent accuracy. He’s landed 23 of them across his last three fights. He leads the division in control time and is second, to Khamzat Chimaev, in both control time percentage and top position percentage.

I think he’s going to get Strickland down in this fight and I think he’s going to be able to hold him down. I think this might look more like the Allen fight than the Pereira one, though. But that still spells a win for Hernandez.

I also think Hernandez’s chin and motor are going to make it hard for Strickland’s usual tricks to work in this bout.

I like Hernandez -9.5 at -110. I don’t think he will get a finish over Strickland, who is very hard to stop. But if Hernandez wins a decision, I feel like it will be a dominant one.

Best bet: Anthony Hernandez -9.5 (-110)

Geoff Neal (-205) vs. Uros Medic (+170)

Neal was too slow for Carlos Prates in August. Prates beat him to the punch on every exchange, hurt him, and then put him down with a brutal elbow at the last second of round one (see it here). Before that he beat Rafael dos Anjos after Anjos appeared to blow his knee out (Neal looked like he had the edge over RDA before that happened, though). And before that he lost a bad tempered split decision to Ian Machado Garry.

Medic kept his one hundred percent finish rate intact in his last fight, TKOing Muslim Salikhov in just over a minute (see it here). Before that he KO’d Gilbert Urbina (a short notice replacement) in just over a minute (see it here). Medic has now won all his UFC fights by TKO/KO with four of the six victories happening in the first round. His three UFC losses are all finishes, too. Most recently he was stunned by Punahele Soriano for a first round TKO. Before that Mytybek Orolbai got him with a face crank (see it here) and Jalin Turner got him with a rear naked choke (see it here).

Neal looked terrible in that Prates fight. And he was hurt before he know what was happening. I think there is a great chance that happens again here. Yes, I know Prates is much better than Medic, but I really don’t like Medic as a follow up opponent for Neal after such a beating.

Medic leads a very tough Welterweight division in knockdowns per 15 mins (2.26). That’s good for third in the promotion behind Manuel Torres and Tom Aspinall. That tells you that when he lands, it hurts. He also leads the division in shortest average fight time (by almost three minutes). That tells you that when he gets his knockdowns, the fight usually ends quickly after.

Neal has plenty of nice stats to his name, too (not as nice as those I highlighted above). But I just hate this match-up for him.

Best bet: Uros Medic moneyline (+170)

Dan Ige (+170) vs. Melquizael Costa (-205)

Ige dropped a pretty dull decision to Patricio Pitbull in July. Before that he scored a slightly questionable stoppage over Sean Woodson (see it here). He’s now 11-9 in UFC and 19-10 overall.

Costa had a heck of a 2025. The Brazilian won four bouts that year with two stoppages and a Fight of the Night bonus. He deserved a bonus in his last fight, too, for his first round head kick KO of Morgan Charriere (see it here). Those wins have Costa on a five bout winning streak (after he finished Shaylilan Nuerdanbieke in 2024). His last loss was in 2024, to Steve Garcia (he’s pretty good).

This is an interesting match-up and seems to be designed to see if Costa is a fun Featherweight or a Featherweight who needs to be taken seriously.

I like his chances against the veteran Ige, who has been in there with some of the best at this weight class. The biggest reason for that is how porous Ige’s takedown defense can be. He’s got a 56 percent takedown defense on his UFC career, but he’s been taken down quite a lot lately.

Pitbull got him down five times on nine attempts (but only held him down for 2:44 minutes). Lerone Murphy landed three of five takedowns (but he was only able to get 2:17 minutes of control time). Ige has also been ragdolled by both Bryce Mitchell and Movsar Evloev in the past. The fact those two spammed so many takedowns is the only reason Ige doesn’t have a much worse takedown defense percentage on paper.

Costa’s takedown accuracy is only 38 percent, but he attempts enough of them that he manages to get almost two every fight. Two takedowns is a lot in a close fight (the kind Ige often finds himself in).

I don’t think Ige is going to bother trying to take down Costa, since Costa’s guard game is one of the more dangerous ones out there right now. I think this means Ige is going to be just kickboxing and I’m going to favor the guy who is going to be more willing to use his whole toolkit.

Best bet: Melquizael Costa moneyline (-205)

Serghei Spivac (+124) vs. Ante Delija (-148)

Ugh… Heavyweight.

Spivac is now 8-6 in UFC (17-6 overall). He’s riding back to back losses to Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Jailton Almeida. Before that he scored a quick armbar win over Marcin Tybura (see it here).

Delija crusaded against eye pokes when his buddy Tom Aspinall got poked by Ciryl Gane. Delija then went out and poked Cortes-Acosta in the eye in his second ever UFC contest. That led to a weird situation where Delija thought he had won the fight and then had to get refocused to carry on competing. Cortes-Acosta came out his corner swinging after the pause and finished Delija (with a possible eye poke of his own thrown in there).

Delija’s quick hands should cause Spivac some problems. Spivac absorbs more sig. strikes than he lands and that’s always a red flag for me. But this is Heavyweight… no one can say for certain what’s going to happen.

I think Delija’s the better fighter, so I’ll pick him. But I’m just never going to be confident when it comes to this batshit division.

Best bet: Ante Delija moneyline (-148)

Jacobe Smith (-298) vs. Josiah Harrell (+240)

Smith is undefeated as a pro and is now 2-0 in UFC (not including his Contender Series victory). In proper UFC action he’s KO’d Preston Parsons (see it here) and submitted Niko Price (see it here). He’s one of a number of fighters on this card who have cut their teeth with Fury FC. He was due a big test at this event in the form of Seokhyeon Ko (who has back-to-back wins over Oban Elliott and Phil Rowe).

Instead he meets Harrell who famously signed for the UFC to fight Jack Della Maddalena on short notice, but had to pull out due to a brain condition that was flagged in his medicals. That condition would later require surgery. All he’s done is win since then. Last time out he beat Bekmyrza Dosmatov half to death on LFA’s debut VICE TV card. The referee was so bad in that fight that we saw a rare instance of a corner throwing in the towel (see it here).

Smith has looked just like the blue-chip prospect we were expecting in his early UFC tenure. His numbers, through three tracked fights, are off the charts, too. He’s landed 6.21 sig. strikes a minute at 66 percent accuracy and absorbed 2.86 with a 47 percent defense. He has 90 percent takedown success rate for 7.42 takedowns per 15 minutes and a one hundred percent takedown defense. You can’t fight much better than that.

It’s tempting to take a big swing on Harrell, given his exploits outside the Octagon (and thoughts he might be another Ethyn Ewing). But this is really Smith’s fight to lose. In addition to how great he’s looked thus far, he’s also going into this fight with a decent amount of size over Harrell.

I’ve only got the moneylines available now, but I would also take Smith with a -3.5 handicap.

Best bet: Jacobe Smith moneyline (-298)

Zachary Reese (+130) vs. Michel Pereira (-155)

Reese outclassed Jackson McVey last time out, finishing him with a second round choke (see it here). Before that he obliterated Sedriques Dumas with a groin shot that forced a no contest (see it here– sickos). Before that he got a very ho-hum decision over Dusko Todorovic and before that he was finished by Azamat Bekoev (though he claims Bekoev got away with some illegal strikes there). Reese, who has been busy since joining UFC in 2023, also has a 20 second KO over Julian Marquez (see it here).

Pereira is on a three fight skid at the moment. That all started with a brutal, and prolonged, beating he took from Anthony Hernandez in the main event of UFC Vegas 99 in October, 2024. ‘Fluffy’ broke Pereira in that fight and bludgeoned him with ground and pound until getting a merciful fifth round stoppage. He was outlanded 152 to 24 on significant strikes in that fight. After that he lost a close-ish and pretty boring unanimous decision to Abus Magomedov. Then, most recently, he was blown away by the elbows of a re-signed Kyle Daukaus in less than 50 seconds (see it here). Throughout this run, there’s been little sparkle in Pereira who — at his best — is a highly entertaining fighter.

I don’t rate Reese very highly. But I’m finding it very hard to pick Pereira to win anything right now. This could either be the fight that breaks Pereira out of his funk or it could be one that condemns him to a Tony Ferguson like downward spiral.

Sadly, I’m going to go with the latter here, since I just can’t shake how demoralized and unhappy Pereira has looked in the cage since Hernandez took years off his life.

Best bet: Zachary Reese moneyline (+130)

UFC Houston ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Chidi Njokuani (+110) vs. Carlos Leal (-130)

Njokuani took a quick loss to Jake Matthews last time out, losing by a first round RNC. Prior to that he was on a nice run with wins over Elizeu Zaleki, Jared Gordon and Rhys McKee. Those wins came after three losses in a row to Michal Oleksiejczuk, AlbertDuraev and Gregory Rodrigues. He came in heavy for the Zaleski fight, which was a co-main event in 2024. He’s now 5-4 in UFC.

Leal has had a weird run in UFC. He was signed on short notice to fight Rinat Fakhretdinov in Dubai and then lost by unanimous decision in one of the worst judging robberies I’ve seen in recent years. He then went out there are torched Alex Morono for a first round TKO (see it here). We’ve seen how hard it is to stop Morono since then. Leal then went into a fight with Muslim Salikhov as a -480 favorite only to be starched by a counter right hook inside of a minute (see it here).

Leal is a real flamethrower landing a dizzying 9.57 sig. strikes a minute through three UFC contests. You need five bouts to get in the stat leader boards. But right now the promotion’s highest sig. strike per minute rate is Joshua Van at 8.84. Leal also absorbs 7.61 sig. strikes a minute, too. Taking one to land one is not a good play against Njokuani.

Njokuani has a 62 percent accuracy on sig. strikes, which puts him in the top ten of all UFC fights (Shara Magomedov leads the way at 63 percent). I think that means there’s a good chance Njokuani will be able to really take advantage of how often Leal is going to be there to get hit. That, plus Njokuani’s six inches of reach on Leal, have me siding with Chidi ‘Bang Bang’ in this bout.

Best bet: Chidi Njokuani moneyline (+110)

Ode’ Osbourne (+110) vs. Alibi Idris (-130)

Osbourne has a finish over Luis Gurule (which earned him a Performance of the Night bonus) and a split decision over Charles Johnson, but other than that things have not gone well for him over the past few years. Since beating Johnson he’s gone 1-4 with submission losses to Asu Almabyaev and Jafel Filho and decision losses to Ronaldo Rodriguez and Steve Erceg. Other than Rodriguez, though, those are some of the hardest to beat Flyweights in the promotion.

Idirs is a recent TUF grad. He was a -500 favorite against Joseph Morales in the finale of that show last August. Morales styled on him, though, tapping him with a second round triangle choke (see it here). Before that Idris fought exclusively in the Kazakh promotion Naiza.

This is a close fight and not because both these guys are particularly good. Idiris had some hype, but looked very average in his TUF finale. Maybe that was Octagon jitters, though?

Osbourne was doing pretty well against Erceg on the feet, but lost because he gave up three takedowns and couldn’t get off his back. That hole should be something Idiris could exploit.

Idiris is a pretty wild striker, but he might rein that in and look for some fundamental wrestling to secure his first UFC win (and likely continued work with the company).

Best bet: Alibi Idiris moneyline (-130)

Alden Coria (-278) vs. Luis Gurule (+225)

Coria came in on short notice to fight Alesandro Costa and then put a whopping on the Brazilian, earning a third round stoppage (see it here). Coria was a +295 underdog for that fight. That was his first UFC fight after a career spent mostly in Fury FC and LFA.

Gurule got to UFC through the Contender Series in 2024. Since then he was stopped by Ode Osbourne (see it here) and was well dominated by Jesus Aguilar in a unanimous decision loss. He’s also a Fury FC veteran.

Coria seems like the obvious bet here, given how out of his depth Gurule has looked since joining the big league. He’s also giving up a lot of size to Coria. He’s three inches shorter in both height and reach. Coria also has a wrestling advantage, which is where that size can make a lot of difference.

With the moneyline so lopsided in a way that’s not helpful for me, I need to look at some prop bets to get value on this one. I think method of victory KO/TKO/DQ is a good bet. Coria might find a lot of success with ground and pound and Gurule seems to hang all his hopes on his striking.

Both Coria and Gurule have won with submissions in the past, though. I’ll go a slighter safer route here.

Best bet: Fight to go the distance – no (+100)

Nora Cornolle (+260) vs. Joselyne Edwards (-325)

Edwards is one of a few fighters coming into this card with a lot of momentum. She looked fantastic in taking apart Priscila Cachoeira (see it here). That first round stoppage earned her a career first Performance of the Night bonus. That was her second stoppage of the year, having beaten Chelsea Chandler by TKO, too.

Cornolle is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Karol Rosa in August. Before that she got a submission over Hailey Cowan, in a fight she came in heavy for (and the weight did seem to play a difference there). Her other UFC wins are against Melissa Mullins (where she also missed weight) and… against Joselyne Edwards in her UFC debut in 2023.

I’m finding it very hard to find a reason to pick Cornolle in this bout. Edwards seems to really have figured some stuff out and she’s coming into this one with momentum and a lot of motivation to even the score.

I’m taking the point spread here with Edwards -3.5 at -125. I think there’s a chance she gets a stoppage and I haven’t seen enough from Cornolle to be confident she can take rounds off the in-form Edwards.

Best bet: Joselyne Edwards -1.5 (-125)

Ramiz Brahimaj (-130) vs. Punahele Soriano (+110)

This is an incredible fight.

Both these guys have looked great recently and their contrasting styles might lead to a very interesting, and exciting, fight.

Brahimaj smoked Austin Vanderford in October, hurting him on the feet and then tapping him out with a guillotine (see it here). Before that he slept Billy Ray Goff with a guillotine (see it here). And before that he starched Mickey Gall with a right hook (see it here). He was an underdog in all those fights.

Soriano came down to Welterweight in 2024 and has won three straight. The first of those was a brutal one-sided beating he handed out to Miguel Baeza. Then he blew away Uros Medic with a 30 second TKO (see it here). Last time out he used his wrestling to dominate Nikolay Veretennikov.

This is such a hard fight to pick, with both men having nicely balanced skill sets. Both have KO power and both have great grappling. They don’t look very similar when they fight, though. Soriano has a big punch and can smother an opponent and rack up ground and pound. Brahimaj is more diverse in his striking and is a submission hunter on the ground.

I really don’t know who will have the upper hand in this one.

My best guess is that Soriano, who will have a strength advantage, might be able to match what Themba Gorimbo did to Brahimaj in stuffing him up against the cage and denying him any space to operate. Brahimaj seems to have developed considerably since that loss, though.

I’m a little disappointed in myself to be leaning Soriano here. I’ve been on the Brahimaj hype train for a while now and I’ve taken him in each of his last three wins (while he was an underdog). Now he’s the slight favorite and I’m thinking of fading him!

I can’t do that. Give me Brahimaj and the belief (or hope) that his slick grappling skills will cancel out Soriano’s heavy top game.

Best bet: Ramiz Brahimaj moneyline (-130)

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani (-218) vs. Phil Rowe (+180)

Lebosnoyani was due to fight Austin Vanderford this weekend, before Vanderford fell out. The former LFA fighter is currently on a four fight winning streak, which includes his Contender Series win over Jack Congdon (which he won by TKO in just over a minute).

Rowe is batting .500 in UFC after dropping a unanimous decision to Seokhyeon Ko in November. Before that he got over a slow start to beat Ange Loosa by TKO (see it here). And before that he couldn’t overcome a slow start in a loss to Jake Matthews.

I’m quite high on Lebosnoyani, but I’m worried that he’s too small to be a UFC Welterweight. He’s up against one of the longer Welterweights in the division here and he’ll be giving up four inches of height and a whopping eight inches of reach. He was at a size disadvantage during his win on Contender Series, but Rowe is a different animal.

What could hurt Rowe is how notoriously slow of a starter he is. He’s had to fight back from adversity before and sometimes he’s ran out of time to do so effectively. Lebosnoyani is a fast starter, so Rowe can expect being pressured from the jump.

I’m going back and forth on this, but I think this might not be the right time for Lebosnoyani to face Rowe. I think he might be too small and inexperienced for this level of opponent. I think he’s got a future in UFC, though.

Best bet: Phil Rowe moneyline (+180)

Yadier del Valle (-410) vs. Jordan Leavitt (+320)

‘The Cuban Problem’ del Valle sliced through Isaac Dulgarian for a first round submission in his last fight (see it here). That was an impressive looking win. However, given the lead up and the fallout, there seems to have been a lot more going on in that fight, on the part of Dulagrian, than we know. Del Valle debuted in UFC with a less controversial win, submitting Connor Matthews, also in the first round. He’s now 10-0 as a pro.

‘The Monkey King’ Leavitt has dropped down to 145 lbs. for this fight. His last fight was an anaconda choke win over Kurt Holobaugh (see it here). That came after nearly two years on the sidelines. Before that hiatus he was submitted by Chase Hooper.

Leavitt coming down in weight adds an interesting wrinkle to this bout. However, I still think that del Valle will be just too athletic for him. Leavitt is bendy and twisty and tricky, but del Valle does everything with a lot of power and purpose.

The round total on this one is 1.5 and that’s due to Vegas respecting del Valle’s stopping power. However, I think the over is the play. Del Valle’s two stoppages were over someone under an integrity investigation and someone who was simply not cut out for the UFC level. On Contender Series del Valle fought to a decision with Antonio Monteiro (he beat the heck out of him, but couldn’t finish him). He went to a decision in three of his last five bouts in Fury FC.

Leavitt is his toughest opponent to date, so I think there is reason to believe this goes deeper than a round and a half.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-145)

Carli Judice (-800) vs. Juliana Miller (+550)

Judice showed her improved striking was no fluke in July, when she pieced apart and then stopped Nicolle Caliari (see it here). That followed her stunning head kick KO of Yuneisy Duben (see it here). These big wins came after two split decision losses to Gabriella Fernandes and Ernesta Kareckaite.

Miller grappled her way to a win over Ivana Petrovic in May. Before that she was stopped by Luana Santos and lost a unanimous decision to Veronica Hardy. She debuted in UFC with a TKO win over Brogan Walker, to win her season of TUF. That was back in 2022.

I’m feeling a little sorry for Miller after seeing her reaction to the betting line here (and her misunderstanding over it). I actually don’t think she deserves to be this big of an underdog. Judice has looked very nice lately, but Miller was actually able to impose her game in her last fight and looked good doing it.

Miller’s leaky sig. strike defense (36 percent) is very concerning in this match-up. So I think Judice likely gets the win. I think Miller might have some moments in the fight, though.

The round total is interesting on this one. Under 2.5 is the favorite at -188 odds. Judice has stopped her last two opponents, but stoppages are still more rare in the women’s division. Getting the over at +145 is too tempting for me to turn down (especially if Miller is able to turn this into a grappling match).

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+145)

UFC Houston Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday’s action …

Two bet parlay: Rowe vs. Lebosnoyani Under 2.5 rounds & Cornolle vs. Edwards Under 2.5 rounds (+440)

I think there will be a lot of finishes on this card, which would be a nice change from what we’ve seen in 2026 so far. John-Paul Lebosnoyani fights like his parking meter is running out and that could spell either a KO win or loss for the relative newcomer. And Joselyne Edwards has seemed to have evolved to her final form and that this form is too good for a lot of the women currently placed around her in the division.

Julianna Miller moneyline (+550)

I’m part of the 2 percent! In this division, though, upsets happen. This is a striker vs. grappler fight and we’ve seen the exciting striker get brought down to earth by some simple grappling many times in the past. It might happen here.

Uros Medic to Win by Unanimous Decision (+1600)

These odds are hilarious. Medic has never fought to a decision, but that trend surely has to end sometimes. Getting these long odds on something not particularly special happening feels like a fun opportunity.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Houston: “Strickland vs. Hernandez” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.