Which Washington Nationals offseason decision makes you nervous?

Paul Toboni’s first offseason as Nationals President of Baseball Operations has been an intriguing one. He made plenty of moves, but most of them have been with the future in mind. That is a smart strategy, but part of me wonders about the state of this team in 2026. They are not going to be good, but I worry about the possibility of bottoming out.

There are plenty of holes on this roster, and Toboni has not provided solutions, at least for 2026. We wrote about how the Nats need to make a couple more additions before the season starts. Leaving such glaring holes feels risky to me. However, Paul Toboni has been unafraid to accept risk this offseason.

The one free agent signing he has made is a good example of that. Instead of going for a proven MLB innings eater to fill the back of the rotation, Toboni took an interesting flier. He signed Foster Griffin to a one-year $5.5 million deal. Griffin had a dominant three year run in Japan, but he is 30 years old and only has 8 MLB innings under his belt. 

There is some reason to believe that this could be a strong signing though. Griffin added a few new pitches in Japan and became one of the better arms in the NPB. His last few seasons in Japan compare favorably to Shota Imanaga, who has been a front of the rotation arm for the Cubs. The projection systems actually think Griffin will be solid, with Fangraphs projecting a 4.11 ERA season.

If Griffin can give you an ERA of around 4 for 150 innings, that would be a good contract. However, he is an unproven soft-tosser and the Nats are relying on him to be a solid starter in the heart of their rotation. This is a major risk, even for a rebuilding team.

Toboni’s handling of the bullpen this offseason has also been risky. Last season, the Nats had the worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball at 5.59. Despite that, Toboni traded away the Nats best reliever and has not signed a bullpen arm in free agency. He has been active on the waiver wire and is hoping for internal development.

This plan could work, and is something worth trying. A lot of the best bullpens are not the ones that have the biggest names. Relievers are very volatile assets. You can create a solid bullpen out of thin air, and that is exactly what Toboni plans to do. The Nats have some promising arms that Toboni and the coaching staff will look to develop.

The bullpen battle in Spring Training is something I will be monitoring closely. I am curious to see which pitchers emerge. There are likely to be a couple arms who have added velocity or tweaked their pitch mix. The question is which ones.

Finally, the biggest move Paul Toboni made this offseason was also a risky one. Trading MacKenzie Gore was not a risky move, but the return is high variance. I actually think holding on to Gore would have been the risky option. However, the Nats decided to take a high risk package from the Texas Rangers.

Instead of taking a deal with a true headliner, Toboni went for a quantity over quality package. Most of the players in the deal are multiple years away from the big leagues. The three main pieces in the deal are a 19 year old, a 20 year old and a pitcher who will miss two straight seasons due to injury. 

If these guys hit, Toboni will look like a genius and the Nats farm will be one of the best in baseball. However, there is also a chance that he will regret not taking a deal with more proven commodities. Even for prospects, these guys are high risk.

Overall, Toboni has made a few moves he might regret. However, he also could look very smart. Either way, these deals are also not shots in the dark. They are part of a real strategy and long term vision. He trusts himself and the coaches to develop these players and get the best out of them. 

Plenty of these moves make me nervous, but they also make me excited. Let me know which move makes you the most nervous in the comments. What is one move that you really like and what is a move you think Toboni could regret? It has been an interesting offseason, and I am excited to see it play out.