Why the Jaguars Are Built to Avoid a 2026 Regression

In NFL circles, the phrase “sophomore slump” has a way of sending chills down the spines of fans and coaches alike. Duplicating play calling year one success is difficult enough, improving upon it is rarer still. For many coordinators, the offseason following a breakthrough season can often become a restless search for the next evolution of a system that already worked. Following the explosive success of Liam Coen’s Jacksonville Jaguars offense, featuring a year one playoff appearance, this question has finally arrived in Duval. Can the team’s leadership find success in staying ahead of the curve?

A Simplified Year One

Year one offensive success can often be attributed to the element of surprise, a new scheme installed with the singular focus of winning games before opposing defenses have had time to study and adjust. But in the case of the 2025 Jaguars, there is genuine reason for optimism heading into year two.

One aspect that makes Jacksonville’s situation particularly encouraging is that their 2025 offensive success appeared to come while running a simplified version of the playbook. Following a stretch near the top of the league in pre-snap and alignment penalties through the preseason and first seven weeks of the season, the staff made a deliberate decision to strip out much of the receiver motion and shift packages that were attributing to false starts along the offensive line and confusion among the receivers. From a play calling and packaging standpoint, that means that a significant portion of the playbook currently remains untapped in 2026.

Screen Game Absence

The screen game tells a similar story. After the Week 8 bye, the staff essentially removed it from the call sheet entirely: jailbreak screens, bubble screens, running back and tight end screens all but disappeared during the Jaguars’ playoff race.

The 2025 Jaguars simply weren’t there yet, and that, paradoxically, is one of the more encouraging signs heading into 2026. With a second offseason in the playbook, and the basics fully grasped, the receiving operation is now free to fully focus on Lesson 2.0 of the Liam Coen playbook.

Where’s the Beef?

In addition to the muted screen game, man run schemes were also minimally featured, while running back draws were largely absent as well, as the 2025 offense primarily deployed zone rushes last season for Bhayshul Tuten and LeQuint Allen. But the foundation for more is clearly there, as Travis Etienne carried a nearly even split of gap and zone rushes in 2025. Anyone who watched Coen’s offense in Tampa Bay knows how versatile and multi-dimensional this system can be when the personnel is ready to execute it, which remains the question with Etienne now in New Orleans.

The additions of Emmanuel Pregnon, Nate Boerkircher, and Chris Rodriguez clearly allow more potential versatility in the run game, using more strength at the point of attack. With a healthy Patrick Mekari in the fold, Jacksonville could finally have multiple true people-movers as options to compete at right guard. Jacksonville could benefit from more vertical displacement in the run game, giving the offense more downhill options instead of relying almost exclusively on the athleticism-driven principles of zone blocking. This offseason’s interior offensive line competition, with a goal of more helmet on helmet man-blocking, could do wonders for catapulting this run game in 2026.

Where’s the Boom?

But even looking past scheme, towards personnel, the Jaguars’ deep passing struggles left a lot on the bone throughout the season, including in the playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills. But with a passing offense now entering year two of the system, and with the ability to vertically attack the perimeter through Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter on the outside while Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers both work the interior, teams may be unable to shade a safety towards BTJ. That makes the case for a meaningful improvement in that area a reasonable one in 2026. The understanding that the ceiling on this offense hasn’t been reached is a good omen when looking to avoid regression.

Room Left to Improve

So, while sophomore slumps are real, they’re not inevitable. The teams that fall victim to it are typically the ones that had little more to give, offenses that had already thrown the biggest cards in their hand by December of year one. That does not describe the 2025 Jacksonville Jaguars. Liam Coen’s offense went to war with a simplified playbook, a screen game that was shelved mid-season, and a deep passing attack that never fully materialized, and still won 13 games. The tools are in the building. The personnel is improving. And the system, by all accounts, has plenty left to unlock.

The Jaguars have an opportunity to become the first Jacksonville team to head to the playoffs in back to back seasons since 1998 to 1999. If Jacksonville can stay healthy, handle the added complexity, and take the next step in the passing game with the training wheels off, the 2026 offense has every reason to be better than the one that turned Duval into a contender. The slump isn’t lurking. The evolution is.